The crypto market could be bracing for a continued bull run, despite the recent events that have hit the sector. Part of the drivers of this optimism is the speculation that the Federal Reserve would be cutting interest rates in September after the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, gave hints of that happening. 

尽管最近发生的事件袭击了该行业，但加密市场可能会继续进行牛市。这种乐观的驱动因素的一部分是，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）提出了这一情况之后，美联储将在9月降低利率。 

Another driver is coming from the regulatory part, as US regulators are also considering the approval of the first wave of altcoin exchange-traded funds. Many traders believe the lull of recent months is about to give way to a new rally heading into autumn and winter 2025.

另一个驾驶员来自监管部件，因为美国监管机构还考虑批准了第一波Altcoin Exchange贸易资金。许多交易者认为，最近几个月的平息即将让位于2025年秋季和冬季的新集会。

CryptoQuant analysts pointed out that the share of Bitcoin held for more than a year has reached levels usually seen near the end of cycles. Unlike in the past, however, the upward slope is flattening, a sign that the cycle may last longer.

隐式分析师指出，一年多的比特币份额已达到通常在周期结束时看到的水平。但是，与过去不同，向上的斜率正在变平，这表明周期可能持续更长的时间。

Institutional adoption and the popularity of spot ETFs are part of the reason. “Any additional corrections could present an attractive opportunity,” the analyst said.

机构采用和现货ETF的普及是原因的一部分。这位分析师说：“任何其他更正都可能带来有吸引力的机会。”

Rate cuts fuel market risk appetite

费率削减燃料市场风险食欲

Hints from Fed chair Jerome Powell that the central bank is ready to ease policy have stoked expectations that America’s long stretch of high interest rates could be ending. Inflation has cooled, growth is slowing, and investors are betting the Fed will finally act.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的暗示，中央银行准备放松政策，已经提出了人们对美国长期高利率可能结束的期望。通货膨胀已经冷却，增长正在放缓，投资者押注美联储最终会采取行动。

A softer dollar and looser conditions make riskier assets more attractive, and digital tokens have historically rallied when rates come down. So when Powell last hinted at cuts earlier this summer, Bitcoin and Ethereum both jumped almost instantly.

柔和的美元和宽松的条件使风险更大的资产更具吸引力，并且在利率下降时，数字代币历史上已经集结。因此，当鲍威尔在今年夏天早些时候上次暗示削减时，比特币和以太坊几乎立即跳了起来。

However, the market has not been without turbulence. Bitcoin is down about 4.6% this month, trading near $110,500, showing that even in an optimistic environment, volatility remains part of the story.

但是，市场并非没有动荡。本月比特币下降了约4.6％，交易接近110,500美元，表明即使在乐观的环境中，波动性仍然是故事的一部分。

ETFs will stir the next wave

ETF将搅拌下一波

Another reason for hope lies with regulators. After greenlighting Bitcoin spot ETFs in early 2024, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is now reviewing more than 70 applications for altcoins. Solana, XRP, and even Dogecoin are among the tokens under consideration, with decisions possible as soon as October.

希望的另一个原因在于监管机构。在2024年初绿光比特币现场ETF之后，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）现在正在审查70多个替代申请的申请。 Solana，XRP甚至Dogecoin都是正在考虑的令牌之一，在10月份就可以做出决定。

Bitcoin ETFs brought billions in institutional inflows within weeks of launch. A similar move for altcoins could transform liquidity and pricing for a range of assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

比特币ETF在发布后数周内带来了数十亿个机构流入。 AltCoins的类似举动可以改变比特币和以太坊以外一系列资产的流动性和定价。

Signs of change on-chain

链上变化的迹象

According to CryptoQuant, the average size of deposits hitting Binance, long seen as a retail-heavy exchange, has soared. In early 2024, the average was less than one Bitcoin. Today, it stands above 14. That shift suggests that whales are now more active on the platform, taking positions for what could be the next big move.

据隐性量，持续二元的平均存款量（长期以来被视为零售繁重的交易所）已经飙升了。在2024年初，平均值不到一个比特币。如今，它的位置超过14。这种转变表明鲸鱼现在在平台上更加活跃，担任下一个大举动的位置。

Also, large block trades show investors buying December call spreads on Bitcoin, essentially betting on prices reaching as high as $160,000 by the end of the year. Ethereum options markets are also heating up, with heavy activity around the $4,800 level, hinting at confidence in further gains for the second-largest token.

此外，大型交易表明，投资者在比特币上购买了12月的电话差价，从本质上讲，到今年年底的价格高达160,000美元。以太坊期权市场也在加热，重大活动约为4,800美元，这暗示了对第二大令牌的进一步增长的信心。

But not every signal points upward. Technical charts are flashing warnings, including a bearish divergence on Bitcoin’s 14-month Relative Strength Index. “The cycle is slower, but longer,” CryptoQuant concluded. “This is a different kind of market, with institutions and nations now part of the equation.”

但是并非每个信号都向上指向。技术图表正在闪烁警告，包括对比特币14个月相对强度指数的看跌差异。 “循环较慢，但更长。”加密量总结道。 “这是一种不同的市场，机构和国家现在是等式的一部分。”

Corrections may come, but if the catalysts fall into place, the cold winter months of 2025 could feel very warm indeed for the crypto faithful.

可能会进行更正，但是如果催化剂落入到位，那么2025年寒冷的冬季对于加密货币的忠实而言确实会感到非常温暖。

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