Dogecoin confronts a concentrated resistance zone at $0.21, where blockchain data reveal approximately 10.5 billion tokens—valued at roughly $2.22 billion—were accumulated at that price point. Market analyst Ali Martinez identified this supply cluster through Glassnode cost-basis distribution data, marking it as a critical threshold that could determine the cryptocurrency's near-term trajectory.

Dogecoin confronts a concentrated resistance zone at $0.21, where blockchain data reveal approximately 10.5 billion tokens—valued at roughly $2.22 billion—were accumulated at that price point. Market analyst Ali Martinez identified this supply cluster through Glassnode cost-basis distribution data, marking it as a critical threshold that could determine the cryptocurrency's near-term trajectory.

What to Know:

What to Know:

• On-chain data shows 10.5 billion Dogecoin tokens accumulated at $0.21, creating a $2.2 billion resistance wall that may trigger selling pressure from holders seeking to exit at breakeven prices.

On-chain data shows 10.5 billion Dogecoin tokens accumulated at $0.21, creating a $2.2 billion resistance wall that may trigger selling pressure from holders seeking to exit at breakeven prices.

• Technical analysis identifies the $0.21 level as both a Fibonacci retracement point and a supply concentration zone, with potential upside targets at $0.29, $0.45, and $0.86 if the resistance breaks.

Technical analysis identifies the $0.21 level as both a Fibonacci retracement point and a supply concentration zone, with potential upside targets at $0.29, $0.45, and $0.86 if the resistance breaks.

• Large holder data indicates the top 1% of addresses continue accumulating supply without significant distribution, suggesting institutional conviction remains intact despite price stagnation.

Large holder data indicates the top 1% of addresses continue accumulating supply without significant distribution, suggesting institutional conviction remains intact despite price stagnation.

Blockchain Data Reveals Price Bottleneck

Blockchain Data Reveals Price Bottleneck

Martinez, who tracks cryptocurrency markets under the handle @ali_charts, posted a Glassnode heatmap showing heavy accumulation in a narrow band between $0.21062334 and $0.21144839. The data point, timestamped Oct. 19, 2025, shows 10,575,420,761 tokens clustered in that range.

Martinez, who tracks cryptocurrency markets under the handle @ali_charts, posted a Glassnode heatmap showing heavy accumulation in a narrow band between $0.21062334 and $0.21144839. The data point, timestamped Oct. 19, 2025, shows 10,575,420,761 tokens clustered in that range.

"10.50 billion $DOGE were accumulated at $0.21," Martinez wrote. "That's a big resistance zone forming."

"10.50 billion $DOGE were accumulated at $0.21," Martinez wrote. "That's a big resistance zone forming."

The concentration represents investors who purchased at that level and may now face decisions about whether to hold through volatility or exit at their entry price. Such clusters often create friction points where price momentum stalls as sellers emerge.

The concentration represents investors who purchased at that level and may now face decisions about whether to hold through volatility or exit at their entry price. Such clusters often create friction points where price momentum stalls as sellers emerge.

Technical Structure Aligns With On-Chain Metrics

Technical Structure Aligns With On-Chain Metrics

A separate chart Martinez shared Oct. 20 placed the $0.21 area within an ascending channel that has contained Dogecoin's price action since 2023. The pattern shows the cryptocurrency respecting both support and resistance boundaries through multiple tests.

A separate chart Martinez shared Oct. 20 placed the $0.21 area within an ascending channel that has contained Dogecoin's price action since 2023. The pattern shows the cryptocurrency respecting both support and resistance boundaries through multiple tests.

"Just bounced off the channel support and looks set to climb," Martinez noted. "Eyes on $0.29 first, then $0.45 and $0.86."

"Just bounced off the channel support and looks set to climb," Martinez noted. "Eyes on $0.29 first, then $0.45 and $0.86."

His analysis overlays Fibonacci retracement levels onto the price structure, with the 0.618 retracement landing near $0.21205—almost precisely where the supply concentration sits. That overlap of technical resistance and realized cost creates what traders call confluence, where multiple analytical methods point to the same inflection zone. The subsequent targets Martinez outlined correspond to the 0.786 retracement at $0.29, the 1.0 extension at $0.46, and the 1.272 extension at $0.86.

His analysis overlays Fibonacci retracement levels onto the price structure, with the 0.618 retracement landing near $0.21205—almost precisely where the supply concentration sits. That overlap of technical resistance and realized cost creates what traders call confluence, where multiple analytical methods point to the same inflection zone. The subsequent targets Martinez outlined correspond to the 0.786 retracement at $0.29, the 1.0 extension at $0.46, and the 1.272 extension at $0.86.

Breaking through the current level would require sustained buying volume capable of absorbing the accumulated supply, while failure could send price back toward the lower channel boundary.

Breaking through the current level would require sustained buying volume capable of absorbing the accumulated supply, while failure could send price back toward the lower channel boundary.

Large Holders Maintain Position Size

Large Holders Maintain Position Size

Analyst Cryptollica examined distribution patterns among the largest wallet addresses, tracking the percentage of total supply held by the top 1% of holders. The data, shared in a chart titled "Percent of Supply Held by Top 1% Addresses," shows this cohort maintaining or increasing their holdings even as price has climbed from cycle lows.

Analyst Cryptollica examined distribution patterns among the largest wallet addresses, tracking the percentage of total supply held by the top 1% of holders. The data, shared in a chart titled "Percent of Supply Held by Top 1% Addresses," shows this cohort maintaining or increasing their holdings even as price has climbed from cycle lows.

"The supply held %1 data downward trend has not yet been seen as the price moves toward a new all-time high," Cryptollica wrote, setting a price target of $1.30.

"The supply held %1 data downward trend has not yet been seen as the price moves toward a new all-time high," Cryptollica wrote, setting a price target of $1.30.

Concentration metrics offer insight into whether large holders—often assumed to be institutions, early adopters, or exchanges—are distributing into strength or accumulating through weakness. The current pattern suggests these addresses have not shifted to selling mode, which can indicate conviction but also creates conditions for sharp moves if that stance reverses. High concentration can reduce available float and amplify price swings in either direction once major holders begin transacting.

Concentration metrics offer insight into whether large holders—often assumed to be institutions, early adopters, or exchanges—are distributing into strength or accumulating through weakness. The current pattern suggests these addresses have not shifted to selling mode, which can indicate conviction but also creates conditions for sharp moves if that stance reverses. High concentration can reduce available float and amplify price swings in either direction once major holders begin transacting.

Understanding Key Terms

Understanding Key Terms

Cost basis refers to the price at which an investor originally acquired an asset. When blockchain data aggregates tokens by their last-moved price, it creates a distribution map showing where supply sits relative to current market value. Addresses holding coins above current price are underwater; those below are profitable. Clusters at specific levels often become support or resistance zones.

Cost basis refers to the price at which an investor originally acquired an asset. When blockchain data aggregates tokens by their last-moved price, it creates a distribution map showing where supply sits relative to current market value. Addresses holding coins above current price are underwater; those below are profitable. Clusters at specific levels often become support or resistance zones.

Fibonacci retracement levels derive from a mathematical sequence and are used by technical analysts to identify potential reversal points. The most commonly watched levels include 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, and extensions beyond 1.0. These ratios appear throughout nature and finance, though their predictive value remains debated.

Fibonacci retracement levels derive from a mathematical sequence and are used by technical analysts to identify potential reversal points. The most commonly watched levels include 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, and extensions beyond 1.0. These ratios appear throughout nature and finance, though their predictive value remains debated.

Ascending channels are formed by parallel trendlines connecting higher lows and higher highs, indicating sustained upward momentum within defined boundaries. Price typically oscillates between support and resistance until a breakout or breakdown occurs.

Ascending channels are formed by parallel trendlines connecting higher lows and higher highs, indicating sustained upward momentum within defined boundaries. Price typically oscillates between support and resistance until a breakout or breakdown occurs.

Outlook Hinges on Resistance Test

Outlook Hinges on Resistance Test

The convergence of on-chain supply data, technical resistance, and holder concentration creates a clear decision point for Dogecoin. If buying pressure proves sufficient to clear the $2.2 billion worth of tokens at $0.21 and establish that level as support, Martinez's progression of targets provides a framework for measuring the next leg. Should that effort fail, traders will likely look toward the channel's lower boundary as the next area of interest.

The convergence of on-chain supply data, technical resistance, and holder concentration creates a clear decision point for Dogecoin. If buying pressure proves sufficient to clear the $2.2 billion worth of tokens at $0.21 and establish that level as support, Martinez's progression of targets provides a framework for measuring the next leg. Should that effort fail, traders will likely look toward the channel's lower boundary as the next area of interest.

As of publication, Dogecoin traded at $0.195, roughly 7% below the resistance cluster and testing the structure that has supported price since its bounce from lower levels.

As of publication, Dogecoin traded at $0.195, roughly 7% below the resistance cluster and testing the structure that has supported price since its bounce from lower levels.