April 20 saw Dogecoin (DOGE) celebrating the annual DogeDay, an event that first came to the forefront in 2021 with the memecoin community. But there’s another cause for celebration as one analyst is highlighting a 500% surge for the crypto, based on a historical pattern that preceded a major rally in the previous cycle.

At press time, Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading at $0.16132, testing the major horizontal support level. It has been moving sideways in the $0.14–$0.16 range since late March, indicating an accumulation phase following a prolonged downtrend from December 2021 highs.

The price action is currently testing the 20-day Exponential Moving Average at $0.16067 and appears to be tracking toward the $0.20 psychological resistance level — which was established in early March and retested at the end of that month.

Relative Strength Index is climbing and has crossed above its own moving average. Though still below the neutral 50 level, the upward momentum signals growing bullish interest.

However, the macro structure is still bearish, as the price has yet to break decisively above the 20-day EMA, and no significant uptick in volume has emerged — meaning that market interest is stable but still subdued.

Although the daily chart is largely bearish crypto analyst @Steph_iscrypto believes DOGE price is gearing up for a major breakout, based on a historical pattern that played out during a previous market cycle.

According to Steph, DOGE had ridden a 129-day downtrend before skyrocketing over 500%, rallying from around $0.08 to more than $0.40. He says that a similar setup is forming now, with DOGE once again having declined steadily for 129 days. On the chart, both downtrends are marked as “43 bars, 129d,” representing 43 daily candles over the same duration.

Steph essentially suggests that if history repeats, the current consolidation range could serve as launchpad for the next major rally. “Bottom signal flashing,” he wrote in 19 April X post.

Meanwhile, Dogecoin is drawing institutional attention as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is evaluating several exchange-traded fund applications tracking DOGE price. These include filings from Bitwise, Grayscale, 21Shares, and Rex Shares (in partnership with Osprey Funds).

The approval of these ETFs could act as a major catalyst, potentially driving 500% surge @Steph_iscrypto has projected for the memecoin.