Dogecoin (DOGE) shows bullish signals on daily and 4-hour charts, despite whale selling activity suggesting a potential bear trap.

Dogecoin's Reaction at the Mid-Term Trendline

The daily Dogecoin price chart traded slightly below a key descending trendline established since early January 2025. This trendline, extending from $0.4600 in January, reached the $0.15500 to $0.17000 zone over four months. Consistent price resistance against this trendline created a negative price structure. Dogecoin consolidated near $0.16000, below the ascending trendline, showing hesitation before a potential breakout.

Dogecoin daily chart | Source: X

A daily close above $0.17 would invalidate bearish trends and potentially trigger a price flip. Breaking the trendline could propel DOGE to $0.21, potentially extending to $0.24. Conversely, resistance at $0.15500 followed by a price decrease could strengthen bearish momentum, leading to further declines towards $0.13000 or lower. The mid-term trendline's significance lies in determining Dogecoin's next directional move.

Will the Wedge Breakout Persist?

Analysis of the 4-hour chart reveals a bullish falling wedge breakout. Prices rose from $0.15100 post-breakout, confirming an uptrend continuation to $0.15800. This movement, characterized by lower highs and lower lows before the breakout, typically signals bullish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) surpassed the crucial 50-level mark, a positive shift from its prior position below 50 until reaching $0.15.

Dogecoin 4-hour chart | Source: X

Sustained RSI above 50 would confirm positive momentum, strengthening the bullish trend. This uptrend could extend to $0.16200 or beyond, provided DOGE remains above $0.1560. Failure to maintain this level could cause a price drop to $0.1510. A fall below $0.1560 would invalidate the uptrend, ending the breakout pattern and potentially reigniting the bearish trend. Future candle patterns will determine the breakout's sustainability.

Why are Whales Offloading DOGE?

Despite positive indicators, significant DOGE distribution by whales occurred. Whale-tier addresses held a total balance of 24.65B DOGE. This offloading, despite optimistic price action, hints at a potential bear trap. Over the past week, wallets holding 23.81B DOGE saw a decrease of approximately 840M DOGE, representing a loss of over 570M tokens.

DOGE whale activity | Source: Santiment

Consistent balance declines across 10M–100M DOGE wallets, occurring alongside price increases, suggest major investors are both cashing out and potentially losing confidence. Similar exit patterns have preceded short-term price corrections in Dogecoin, particularly when public interest wanes. However, current strong demand may mitigate the impact of whale selling. The current upward momentum could continue as long as the price stays above $0.15. Conversely, a fall below $0.15 could trigger a deeper correction if selling pressure resumes. Future whale activity will determine whether buying or selling pressure dominates.