The signals align on the altcoin market. While bitcoin and Ethereum take a pause, XRP and Dogecoin position themselves at the forefront of speculative bets. Raoul Pal, former Goldman Sachs and founder of Real Vision, mentions an imminent transition of the current cycle. In an analysis shared on X, he revives his concept of “Crypto Waiting Room” and points to a possible breakout from consolidation for these two assets. Investors, for their part, watch for the trigger signal.

这些信号在Altcoin市场上保持一致。尽管比特币和以太坊暂停，但XRP和Dogecoin位置自己位于投机赌注的最前沿。前高盛（Goldman Sachs）兼真实视野的创始人劳尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）提到了当前周期的即将过渡。在对X分析的分析中，他恢复了“加密候诊室”的概念，并指出了这两个资产合并的突破。投资者在他们的角度关注触发信号。

A rotation cycle underway

旋转周期正在进行

In a message published this week on the social network X, Raoul Pal states that XRP and Dogecoin are about to exit a long consolidation phase to enter a bullish momentum, following a collapse after a spectacular rebound.

在本周在社交网络X上发表的一条消息中，拉乌尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）指出，XRP和Dogecoin即将退出一个漫长的合并阶段，以进入看涨势头，这是在壮观的反弹之后崩溃之后。

“DOGE – in the waiting room. It will go full throttle as soon as others do…” he writes, before adding: “XRP… is going full throttle…”.

他写道：“多吉 - 在候诊室里。

By these terms, the former Goldman Sachs strategist refers to a critical phase of the crypto cycle: when liquidity leaves institutional assets (Bitcoin, Ethereum) to migrate to more speculative tokens, historically explosive when momentum triggers.

通过这些术语，前高盛战略家提到了加密周期的关键阶段：当流动性离开机构资产（比特币，以太坊）以迁移到更具投机性的代币时，在动量触发时，历史上爆发了。

The analyst uses the concept of “Crypto Waiting Room”, a central metaphor in his cyclical reading model. He notably relies on the Total3 indicator (the crypto market capitalization excluding BTC and ETH), currently close to a major resistance. The technical data support this “pre-rotation” scenario :

分析师使用了他周期性阅读模型中的一个中心隐喻“加密守望室”的概念。他特别依靠总3指标（不包括BTC和ETH的加密市值），目前接近主要阻力。技术数据支持此“预旋转”方案：

• XRP is currently evolving within a symmetrical triangle below its peak reached in spring this year, a classic structure announcing impulsive movements ;

XRP目前正在今年春季达到高峰以下的对称三角形中发展，这是一个经典的结构，宣布冲动运动。

• Dogecoin, on its side, has broken out of its 2021–2024 descending channel to form a higher base, compressed in a bullish wedge ;

Dogecoin在其身边，已经从2021 - 2024年的下降频道中拆分出来，形成了更高的基础，并以看涨的楔子压缩。

• Pal also classifies other tokens like SOL and SUI in this waiting room, but considers DOGE and XRP the most advanced in the “full throttle mode” process, in other words massive capital repositioning ;

PAL还将在此候诊室中对Sol和Sui等其他代币进行了分类，但在“全油门模式”过程中认为Doge和XRP是最先进的，换句话说，大量资本重新定位；

• This cycle of concentration then diffusion of capital reflects, according to him, a dynamic already observed on markets during the bullish phases of 2017 and 2021.

据他认为，这一集中循环反映了资本的扩散，这是在2017年和2021年看涨阶段对市场上已经观察到的动态。

The liquidity wave changes the game

流动性波改变了游戏

Beyond on-chain data, it is on the macroeconomic level that Raoul Pal bases much of his conviction. “The rate of change will only increase in the key indicator that is total global liquidity” he states, pointing to a global phenomenon.

除了链链数据之外，劳尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）在宏观经济层面上也取决于他的大部分信念。他指出，“变化速度只会增加全球流动性的关键指标”，指出全球现象。

Thus, the United States, Europe, China and Japan have to refinance their debts in a context of cyclical slowdown, generating a massive liquidity injection on a global scale. This liquidity, according to him, constitutes an “extremely bullish context”, that is an exceptionally favorable environment for risk assets, including cryptos.

因此，美国，欧洲，中国和日本必须在周期性放缓的背景下再融资债务，从而在全球范围内产生大量的流动性注入。根据他的说法，这种流动性构成了“极其看涨的背景”，这是包括加密货币在内的风险资产的极为有利的环境。

Pal also emphasizes a series of structural factors amplifying this dynamic: sovereign accumulation of cryptos, favorable regulatory developments, as well as growing acceptance by traditional markets, notably Wall Street.

PAL还强调了一系列结构性因素，以扩大这种动态：加密货币的主权积累，有利的监管发展以及传统市场（尤其是华尔街）的接受。

All these elements, combined with the rise of the global money supply (notably through the global M2), would extend the current crypto cycle beyond its usual pattern. “We have been there since August 2024, and the acceleration phase is still to come” he specifies. In other words, according to his analysis, the bull market is still ongoing, but far from its peak.

所有这些要素，再加上全球货币供应的兴起（尤其是通过全球M2），将把当前的加密周期扩展到其通常的模式之外。他说：“自2024年8月以来，我们一直在那里，加速阶段仍在到来。”换句话说，根据他的分析，牛市仍在进行中，但远离其顶峰。

If the scenarios outlined by Pal materialize, the implications for investors are substantial. A rotation of capital towards assets like XRP or Dogecoin as evidenced by investor migration, at the dawn of a generalized altcoin rebound, could reshuffle the cards in a market still largely polarized around bitcoin and Ethereum.

如果PAL概述的场景实现，那么对投资者的影响是很大的。投资者迁移证明的是，在广义的Altcoin反弹时，资本向XRP或Dogecoin的资产旋转可能会使人们在仍然很大程度上两极分化比特币和以太坊的市场中重塑这些卡片。