The race for the first U.S. Dogecoin (DOGE) exchange-traded fund (ETF) intensified this week with 21Shares submitting an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on April 9th. This joins filings from other major players like Grayscale and Bitwise, submitted earlier this year, indicating growing institutional interest in Dogecoin.

DOGE ETF Approval Odds Shift Slightly for 2025

Earlier this year, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas projected a 75% chance of DOGE ETF approval in 2025. However, current odds on Polymarket have decreased to 64%, reflecting some market uncertainty. Despite this, the crypto community remains optimistic, particularly given increasing pressure on the SEC to approve diversified crypto products.

Mixed Market Signals for DOGE

While ETF optimism grows, on-chain data suggests a more cautious overall market sentiment:

• Miner Accumulation: Miners have increased their holdings from 831 million to 907 million DOGE since March, suggesting long-term confidence.
• Retail Stagnation: Retail activity remains low, with subdued social media engagement and stagnant active user metrics.
• Whale Selling Pressure: Large wallets holding over 1 billion DOGE have continued selling since December, casting doubt on a sustained price recovery, as these holders significantly influence DOGE's price.

DOGE Price Outlook: Holding at Key Support

DOGE has significantly retraced, losing its post-U.S. election gains and falling back to $0.15—a level last seen in November and briefly held as support in March. A decisive break below this level could lead to a decline toward $0.10 or even $0.06, analysts warn. Conversely, reclaiming the 200-day moving average (DMA) above $0.25 would be a strong bullish signal, potentially reigniting investor interest.

As the second quarter progresses, Dogecoin's future may hinge not only on ETF approval but also on a shift in sentiment among major market participants.