Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently exhibiting a rare and potentially concerning technical pattern: its third-ever bearish Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) cross on the monthly chart. This development has sparked debate and raised questions about a possible extended period of price stagnation for the popular altcoin.

As highlighted by Bitcoinsensus, this specific technical formation has only materialized twice before in Dogecoin's history, with each occurrence preceding significant price declines.

Looking back, the bearish MACD cross in 2018 ushered in a period of protracted price consolidation. Similarly, the signal in 2022 coincided with the beginning of a full-fledged bear market for Dogecoin. Now, in 2025, the third bearish cross is officially underway.

The MACD is a widely recognized momentum indicator used by traders and analysts. A bearish cross occurs when the MACD line dips below the signal line. When this happens on a higher timeframe like the monthly chart, it's generally viewed as a bearish reversal signal. Historically, for Dogecoin, these crosses have aligned with major cycle peaks and subsequent periods of price underperformance.

A Break From Tradition?

Despite the historical precedent, the tweet from @Bitcoinsensus aptly points out that "this time could potentially be different." However, the emergence of this bearish cross in 2025 – against a backdrop of general market uncertainty and price compression – warrants careful consideration.

Accompanying the analysis is a chart illustrating the three historical MACD crosses and their correlation with notable DOGE price pullbacks. With this third crossover now active, traders and investors are advised to exercise vigilance and seek further confirmation of weakening trends.

Whether Dogecoin will defy its historical trajectory in this current market cycle or mirror past patterns remains uncertain. At present, the technical signals are suggesting a heightened risk of downward price movement.