Chart of the week: Dogecoin could rally in double-digits on three conditions

Dogecoin's Recent Rally: A Deep Dive

Table of Contents

• Dogecoin's Double-Digit Rally: Price Expectations
• Dogecoin On-Chain Analysis
• DOGE Derivatives Analysis and Price Forecast
• Future Outlook for DOGE
• Dogecoin ETF and Potential Catalysts

Dogecoin's Double-Digit Rally: Price Expectations

Dogecoin (DOGE) reached a near two-week high of $0.20585 on Wednesday, March 26th. Over the preceding seven days, DOGE rallied almost 10%, defying the negative impact of recent macroeconomic developments and the ongoing uncertainty in the US.

This meme coin's upward trajectory could continue, potentially reaching an 11% increase and testing resistance at the lower boundary of the imbalance zone between $0.21465 and $0.24040. The upper boundary of this zone, at $0.24040, represents a significant resistance level, approximately 24% above the current price.

Positive momentum is indicated by key indicators like the RSI (at 52, above the neutral level) and the MACD (showing green histogram bars above the neutral line). These suggest a bullish outlook for Dogecoin.

Dogecoin On-Chain Analysis

On-chain data reveals a growing number of DOGE holders. Continued or steady growth in holder count over the coming week could signify sustained trader interest.

The realized profit/loss metric shows relatively small-scale profit-taking by DOGE holders. Large-scale profit-taking typically increases selling pressure, but this metric currently supports a bullish outlook. Dogecoin's active address count has remained stable since mid-March, further highlighting its resilience.

DOGE Derivatives Analysis and Price Forecast

Analysis of Dogecoin derivatives positions across exchanges shows open interest recovering from its March 12th low. With DOGE trading around $0.19, open interest stands at $1.98 billion. Data from Coinglass indicates a steady increase in open interest.

On March 27th, $4.29 million in long positions were liquidated. Traders should monitor liquidation data and prices carefully before adjusting their derivatives positions. The long/short ratio on major exchanges like Binance and OKX exceeds 1, suggesting derivatives traders are anticipating a DOGE price increase.

Combining technical and derivatives data suggests Dogecoin could test the $0.21465 resistance level next week, provided spot prices follow the trend indicated by derivatives trading.

Future Outlook for DOGE

Between March 10th and 27th, Dogecoin wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million DOGE tokens consistently increased their holdings. Wallets holding larger amounts (10 million to 100 million, and 100 million to 1 billion DOGE) remained relatively stable during this period.

Data from Santiment shows significant accumulation by traders holding between 1 million and 10 million DOGE tokens, even as the price rises. This points to strong demand and supports a bullish outlook.

Dogecoin ETF and Potential Catalysts

DOGE holders are closely watching Bitwise's Dogecoin ETF filing with the SEC. This filing aims to establish Dogecoin as a legitimate investment for institutional investors.

While Bitcoin flash crashes have impacted DOGE to some extent, the meme coin has consistently recovered. Continued gains could signal the end of its multi-month downward trend.

Other potential catalysts include positive developments in crypto regulation, the passage of the stablecoin bill in Congress, and continued demand from large investors and whales.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.