Dogecoin’s 74% Surge Aligns With Livermore’s Classic Market Psychology Model

• Dogecoin’s price path follows Livermore’s model, advancing from accumulation into markup with targets beyond $0.60.
• Analyst outlook shows potential peaks up to $3.50 by 2026, but warns of steep retracements during distribution phases.
• CryptoBullet and Mario Nawfal predict breakout catalysts, with Bitcoin dominance top as a key trigger.

Dogecoin has surged by 74% this year, with its price action aligning closely to Jesse Livermore’s classical speculative chart. According to analyst CryptoBullet, the cycle of accumulation, markup, distribution, and decline can be applied to the token’s history. 

This model shows Dogecoin progressing through early accumulation stages in 2022–2023 before moving into a strong markup phase in mid 2024. The price reached highs near $0.34 in early 2025, corresponding to Livermore’s critical “all-important action” stage.

From Accumulation to Breakout Potential

Dogecoin spent much of 2022 and 2023 forming higher lows within an expanding wedge, resembling the accumulation stages of Livermore’s framework. This setup transitioned into the markup phase last year, with the token rallying between $0.22 and $0.28 before briefly topping around $0.34. 

The subsequent retracement toward $0.18–$0.20 established a higher low, consolidating the market within a rectangular range. The current value is at $0.2969, positioning the token at a key breakout level.

Bullish Peaks and Risk of Distribution

Livermore’s speculative model outlines several forward targets for Dogecoin. Point 8 projects a move toward $0.60–$0.80 if breakout momentum continues. Point 9 sets a further target near $1.50–$2.00, followed by a potential speculative peak at $3.00–$3.50 around 2026. 

However, the same model warns of sharp corrections once distribution begins. After point 10, retracements could pull prices back to $1.20, while a secondary rally to $2.00 may trap late buyers. The long term projection concludes with a decline toward $0.15–$0.20, returning close to pre rally levels.

Analyst Notes Breakout Catalysts

Earlier this year, CryptoBullet compared Dogecoin’s price structure to a textbook “Accumulation Cylinder,” suggesting a large upward move could follow. The analyst noted that Bitcoin dominance topping out may provide an ideal backdrop for a surge. 

Mario Nawfal also weighed in, stating that once Dogecoin breaks out, the move to $1.00 could occur quickly. These assessments align with the speculative roadmap, which shows the token approaching its next phase in the cycle.