In December 2024, Dogecoin reached its cycle peak precisely at the CVDD Alpha level – Alphractal’s proprietary metric for identifying cycle tops using Cumulative Value Days Destroyed. Historically, this indicator has been one of the most accurate measures for spotting both market tops and bottoms.

However, Wedson noted that the Reserve Risk indicator showed a comparatively weak top last year, suggesting limited conviction among long-term holders. Despite that, the same metric has consistently pinpointed every major Dogecoin top since 2016, maintaining its reliability as a cyclical gauge.

Recent data from the Hodl Waves chart adds to the bullish narrative. It shows that short-term holders – those holding for less than six months – are steadily accumulating Dogecoin.

This accumulation trend mirrors patterns seen in Bitcoin and earlier Dogecoin cycles, often preceding strong upward price movements. Such behavior typically reflects new speculative capital entering the market, which drives up Dogecoin’s Realized Cap and overall network valuation.

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The MVRV Z-Score, another well-known valuation metric, remains far below the euphoric levels observed during the 2021 bull market. This absence of overvaluation implies that Dogecoin still has room to grow before reaching overheated conditions.

Wedson emphasized that tracking holder activity is key in the weeks ahead. If accumulation continues at the current pace, it could signal the early stages of another bullish phase for Dogecoin – one potentially fueled by renewed speculative demand and improving on-chain fundamentals.

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