Dogecoin: Strong Signals from Holders and Market Movements

Dogecoin ($DOGE) has maintained a prominent position in the cryptocurrency landscape, its meme-coin status propelling it into widespread recognition. Recent data reveals that 15% of Dogecoin's supply has remained dormant for 6–12 months, a strong indicator of long-term holder conviction. These holders, many acquiring their assets before the November and December rallies, show little inclination to sell, even amidst market fluctuations. This sustained holding suggests confidence in Dogecoin's future and a reluctance to divest during volatile periods.

According to Glassnode, this 15% of Dogecoin untouched for 6–12 months is particularly significant. These holders purchased before the late 2024 price rally. Their inactivity underscores strong belief in the asset's future value. For many, the November and December rally, with its substantial price increases, provided a satisfactory entry point. Despite subsequent price swings, their commitment to holding remains steadfast. This long-term holder behavior reflects deep conviction and a belief in Dogecoin's long-term potential, possibly anticipating future price appreciation.

Rising HODL Waves and Potential Resistance

Since early March 2025, the 3–6 month HODL wave for Dogecoin has been growing, indicating significant buying during the January price bounce. This bounce saw Dogecoin rise from $0.32 to $0.41. As the price hovers around these levels, some holders may choose to sell at break-even, especially if the price returns to previous highs. This could create resistance as sellers aim to recoup their investments.

The expanding 3–6 month HODL wave reflects a growing number of holders who purchased during this recent period of market optimism. Should the price approach $0.40 again, increased selling pressure is possible as holders seek profits or minimize losses. Consequently, the market might face resistance, potentially hindering short-term upward momentum.

Market Dynamics: Futures Open Interest and Volume

Another key factor influencing Dogecoin's market is the current futures open interest (OI). At approximately $1 billion, it's significantly below the November and December 2024 average of $3 billion. This decline indicates that speculation and leveraged positions aren't driving current price movements. The rally appears more spot-driven, with buyers accumulating Dogecoin directly rather than through futures contracts.

Alongside the decreased futures open interest, Dogecoin futures volume has also fallen significantly. While the 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of futures volume has increased slightly from its low point, it remains near October 2024 levels. This suggests that, although some renewed interest in Dogecoin futures exists, overall trading activity remains relatively subdued compared to previous peaks.