Peter Brandt’s 75% Bitcoin crash scenario ‘very unlikely’: Analyst

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Crypto analysts are largely skeptical of veteran trader Peter Brandt’s recent speculation on X that Bitcoin could mirror its 2022 pattern and undergo a significant 75% correction.

“Never say never; it just feels very unlikely at the moment,” Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph, expressing his doubts about the prediction.

Peter Brandt says it “doesn’t hurt to ask”

Brandt's speculation stemmed from a recent post on X, where he questioned whether Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action might replicate the severe decline experienced in 2022.

In November 2021, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $69,000, subsequently falling approximately 76% over the following 12 months to around $16,195 by November 2022, according to CoinMarketCap data.

“Is Bitcoin $BTC following its 2022 script and setting up for a 75% correction? Doesn’t hurt to ask this, does it?” Brandt posed in a post on Tuesday.

Bitcoiners are closely watching as Bitcoin’s price trades near the all-time high. Source: CoinMarketCap

If a similar decline were to occur from Bitcoin’s current price, it would potentially fall to a level not seen since September 2023.

However, Hundal argues that the current circumstances are significantly different. “The difference in macro fundamentals between now and 2022 is profound," he stated.

“In 2022, we had an economic hangover from the COVID-era of money printing and stimulus. The environment today is totally different,” he explained.

Bitcoin author and analyst Andy Edstrom acknowledged Brandt’s rationale for a potential correction but disagreed with the magnitude of such a drop.

“So far it is, but not the 75% magnitude because the dip between the peaks this year was far less severe than in 2021,” Edstrom said.

Source: Peter Brandt

Edstrom suggested that the 2021 cycle "was truncated" due to certain factors.

Edstrom also attributed the steep decline in 2021 to the US Federal Reserve’s shift toward a more hawkish monetary policy.

Saylor dismisses bearish Bitcoin predictions

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto believes a significant correction is unlikely, arguing that Bitcoin’s price has not yet reached its peak. “Sentiment is pretty bad for this to be a top. There’s no euphoria on the timeline,” he observed.

Hundal said that while some technical analysis might suggest a cyclical downturn, the evidence he sees indicates Bitcoin is “sitting at an inflection point for easing conditions.”

Strategy co-founder and Bitcoin proponent Michael Saylor strongly disagrees with any possibility of a substantial Bitcoin drawdown in the near future.

“Winter is not coming back,” Saylor told Bloomberg on Tuesday. “We’re past that phase; if Bitcoin’s not going to zero, it’s going to $1 million.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.