Price predictions 8/4: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, XLM

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Key points:

• Bitcoin is attempting to establish support around $112,000, but resistance is expected at higher levels as bears may look to sell.
• The significant pullback observed in various altcoins suggests that the next upward movement might not occur rapidly.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are striving to hold the price above $115,000, encountering considerable resistance from bears. Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom Fund, commented on X, suggesting that a sluggish credit market and slower job creation could potentially drive BTC down to $100,000 and Ether (ETH) to $3,000.

Data from US spot BTC and ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also indicates trader caution. Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $812.25 million on Friday, while Ethereum ETFs saw $152.26 million in outflows, ending a 20-day streak of inflows, according to SoSoValue data.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

Despite the near-term uncertainty, some public companies continue to accumulate BTC and ETH. Japanese investment firm Metaplanet announced on Monday that it had acquired 463 BTC at an average price of approximately $115,895, increasing its total holdings to 17,595 BTC.

Similarly, SharpLink purchased 30,755 ETH at an average price of $3,530, bringing the firm's total holdings to 480,031 ETH.

Can BTC overcome its overhead resistance? And if so, will this trigger a recovery in altcoins? Let's examine the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to gain insights.

S&P 500 Index price prediction

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) reached a new all-time high on Thursday but experienced profit-taking at those higher levels.

SPX daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The selling pressure continued on Friday, pushing the price below the 20-day simple moving average (6,306). Bulls are now attempting to regain control by driving the price back above the 20-day SMA on Monday. If successful, the index could retest the all-time high of 6,427.

Conversely, if the price fails to hold above the 20-day SMA and turns downward, it would suggest that rallies are being met with selling. In this scenario, the index could fall to the 50-day SMA (6,139), where buyers are likely to emerge.

US Dollar Index price prediction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) broke above the 50-day SMA (98.29) on July 28 but reversed direction from the overhead resistance of 100.54 on Friday.

DXY daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bulls are attempting to halt the pullback near the moving averages, indicating a potential reduction in selling pressure. If the price rebounds from its current level and breaks above 100.54, the recovery could extend to the 102 level. A break and close above 102 would suggest a short-term bottom is forming.

Sellers will need to push the price below the moving averages to maintain their advantage. If they succeed, the index could decline to 97.10.

Bitcoin price prediction

BTC dropped below the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on Friday but found support at the 50-day SMA ($112,262).

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day SMA ($117,237) has begun to turn downward, and the RSI is slightly below the midpoint, suggesting that bears are attempting to regain control. The anticipated relief rally is likely to encounter selling pressure in the zone between the neckline and the 20-day SMA.

The risk of a decline below the critical support at $110,530 increases if the price reverses from the resistance zone. If this occurs, the BTC/USDT pair could potentially fall to $105,000 and then to $100,000.

Buyers will need to push and sustain the price above the 20-day SMA to take control. If they manage to do so, the pair could retest the $120,000 to $123,218 resistance zone.

Ether price prediction

ETH is finding support within the zone between the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $3,422 and the 61.8% retracement level of $3,300.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The relief rally is expected to face selling pressure at the 20-day SMA ($3,652), but if bulls overcome this resistance, the ETH/USDT pair could rise to $3,941 and potentially to $4,094. Sellers are anticipated to mount a strong defense at $4,094.

Conversely, if the price reverses from the 20-day SMA and breaks below $3,354, it would indicate that bulls are losing their grip. This increases the risk of a decline to the 50-day SMA ($3,013).

XRP price prediction

XRP (XRP) fell below $2.95 on Saturday but rebounded off the 50-day SMA ($2.66) on Sunday, signaling buying activity at lower levels.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The XRP/USDT pair could rise to the 20-day SMA ($3.19), where bears are expected to intervene. If the price reverses from the 20-day SMA, the pair may remain range-bound between the moving averages for a few more days.

A break and close above the 20-day SMA could pave the way for a rally to $3.33 and subsequently to $3.66. Conversely, a drop below the 50-day SMA would signal the beginning of a deeper correction toward $2.40.

BNB price prediction

BNB (BNB) plunged below the 20-day SMA ($769) on Friday and reached the strong support level of $732 on Saturday.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The BNB/USDT pair rebounded from $732 on Sunday, but the recovery is likely to face strong selling pressure at the 20-day SMA. If the price reverses sharply from the 20-day SMA, bears will attempt to push the pair below $732. If they succeed, the pair could fall to the 50-day SMA ($702).

Conversely, a break and close above the 20-day SMA suggests strong buying activity on dips. The pair may climb to $794 and then to $815.

Solana price prediction

Sellers pushed Solana (SOL) below the 50-day SMA ($161) on Saturday but were unable to sustain the lower levels.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The relatively flat moving averages and the RSI in the negative zone do not clearly favor either bulls or bears. The SOL/USDT pair could trade between the moving averages for some time.

A break and close above the 20-day SMA ($179) would give bulls the advantage. The pair may then attempt a rally to $195. On the other hand, a close below $155 would give bears an edge, potentially leading to a slump to $144 and subsequently to $137.

Dogecoin price prediction

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been trading within the broad range of $0.14 and $0.29 for several months.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The relatively flat moving averages and the RSI in negative territory suggest that this range-bound activity may persist for some time. A break and close below the 50-day SMA ($0.19) could send the price down to the critical support at $0.14.

The first sign of strength would be a close above the 20-day SMA. The DOGE/USDT pair could then rise to $0.26 and eventually to $0.29. Sellers are expected to defend the $0.29 level strongly.

Cardano price prediction

Cardano (ADA) rebounded from the 50-day SMA ($0.68) on Sunday, indicating demand at lower levels.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Both moving averages have flattened out, and the RSI is at the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand. This could keep the ADA/USDT pair range-bound between the moving averages for a while.

Sellers are likely to have other plans and will try to push the price below the 50-day SMA. If they succeed, the pair could extend the pullback towards the solid support at $0.50. Buyers will need to push and sustain the price above the 20-day SMA to gain the upper hand.

Stellar price prediction

Stellar (XLM) is attempting to bounce off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.34, but the relief rally is expected to face selling pressure at the 20-day SMA ($0.43).

XLM/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price reverses sharply from the 20-day SMA, it would suggest that sentiment has turned negative and traders are selling on rallies. This could pull the price down to the 50-day SMA ($0.33), which is a crucial support level to watch. If the 50-day SMA breaks, the XLM/USDT pair could plunge to $0.29.

Buyers will need to drive and sustain the price above the 20-day SMA to signal a comeback. The pair may then climb to $0.46 and subsequently to $0.49.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.