XRP, Cardano, Dogecoin ETF Approval Chances Jump Amid Positive SEC Engagement

Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have significantly increased their confidence regarding the potential approval of spot XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this year. They now estimate the likelihood to be over 90%. This optimistic revision stems from recent positive interactions with the SEC, a development considered highly encouraging for ETF issuers.

"Eric Balchunas and I are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher," Bloomberg ETF Analyst James Seyffart stated in a post on X. "Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion."

Roughly two weeks prior, Balchunas and Seyffart placed the odds of XRP, Dogecoin, and ADA funds receiving approval by the end of 2025 below 90%. This latest update reflects a considerable shift, with the analysts now estimating a 95% probability of SEC approval for XRP ETF products, fueled by recent regulatory progress. Dogecoin and Cardano ETF proposals are now assessed as having a 90% chance of securing regulatory authorization.

The analysts have also increased their estimated approval probabilities for other altcoin ETFs, including Polkadot (DOT) and Avalanche (AVAX), to 95%. A similar 95% likelihood of approval has been assigned to funds holding Litecoin (LTC).

SEC Signals Potential Shift in Stance

As previously reported, the SEC earlier this month requested that spot Solana ETF issuers amend their S-1 registration statements, a move interpreted as a potential sign that approvals could be forthcoming.

To date, the SEC has only approved spot crypto ETFs for the two largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). Several major asset managers are currently awaiting clearance from the Commission to list various spot crypto ETF filings.

The approval of these pending filings could potentially unlock institutional capital for the respective altcoins, increasing demand and potentially driving prices upward. While specific approval timelines remain uncertain, such approvals would represent a significant step toward mainstream adoption for these alternative cryptocurrencies.