The price of Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) slid 2% on Friday.

One of the key on-chain metrics as well as the increasing likelihood of DOGE ETF approval also bode well for the meme coin and could trigger more buying pressure.

3 Factors That Could Drive A Dogecoin Price Rally To $0.40 In The Next Few Weeks

The Dogecoin price is showing signs of strength, according to the latest analysis by Polaris.xbt on the X platform.

Pointing out that DOGE has closed the monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG) and is now trading within a stable consolidation zone, could potentially trigger an upward breakout.

According to its analysis, the Dogecoin price outlook is quite positive. If DOGE is able to maintain support at the lower boundary of this consolidation zone, then the next big challenge is to break the resistance level at $0.22.

If the breakout from that level is successful, Dogecoin has a chance to enter a sustained uptrend and surpass $0.40—similar to the price rally that occurred when the issue of DOGE ETF approval surfaced.

Conversely, if DOGE fails to make a clean breakout from the current consolidation zone and instead slips down, then crucial support is at $0.10. If this level is broken, Dogecoin will lose all the price gains made in the fourth quarter due to President Trump’s election sentiment.On-Chain Data Indicates A Bottom In DOGE Price

In addition to technical analysis, on-chain data from Santiment—specifically the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio—suggests that the Dogecoin price may have hit a local bottom, which is often an early signal of an upward price recovery.

At the time of this report, the 365-day MVRV has dropped sharply to -37%. This figure shows that most DOGE holders are losing money (below their purchase price), indicating that the meme coin is undervalued. This opens up the opportunity for a strong uptrend.

This pattern mirrors previous movements, such as in the second half of 2024, when DOGE experienced a parabolic rally after the MVRV indicator signaled a bottom.

DOGE ETF Approval Chance Reaches 64%

The high chance of approval of the spot Dogecoin ETF could potentially be the main trigger for the next price increase. Data from Polymarket shows that the approval chance is now at 64%.

Meanwhile, analysts from Bloomberg estimate that there is an 80% chance that the DOGE ETF will be approved for the three product applications currently being processed.

As optimism grows for the ETF approval, Dogecoin is expected to experience an upward breakout during May 2025. In addition, according to a recent report from the Coingape website, the price of DOGE is projected to jump significantly if it is able to attract 30% to 50% of spot Bitcoin ETF fund inflows.See More: Top 5 Crypto Influencers To Follow In 2023

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.