E77｜Let’s talk about prediction markets again: Controversy and the shattering of ideal narratives. It is a truth mining machine, a dopamine casino, and the next generation of social networks.

Original author：Web3101

Original source：https://www.youtube.com/embed/KyobW8W6YVw

"What is the difference between prediction markets and gambling?" "Why is Buterin's ideal public good destined to become a dopamine arena?" "Since insider trading can force out the truth, why should it be banned?" "Why do market makers dare not price sudden long-tail events? Without market maker subsidies, how can the liquidity of the prediction market be solved?" This podcast is a continuation of last August’s program “Talking Through the Phenomenal Applications of Web3: The Rise of Polymarket and the Controversy of Prediction Markets”. We further discussed some of the iconic controversial issues that emerged after prediction markets became popular. https://youtu.be/eHPoY05P0-c [Anchor] Liu Feng, partner of BODL Ventures, former editor-in-chief of Lianwen Xiong Haojun Jack, deputy editor of Rhythm BlockBeats, anchor of "Web3 Unknown" [Guest] Leo Zhang, founder of 42.space [You will hear] 00:53 Reunited with old guests and friends, the pamphlet "What is the essence of the cryptocurrency phenomenon" is worth reading again https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-P-Qos4mwmyorNENvNstg9jAUvISkVqL 04:13 Disenchanting the "Truth Machine": Wall Street's Motives and Retail Investors' Carnival 06:31 "The prediction market simplifies extremely complex derivatives and options into a game that retail investors can understand and are willing to play. Wall Street likes it because it needs to constantly find a larger group of prey." 07:53 The theory of the usefulness of prediction markets is slapped in the face by reality, the utopia of the elite vs. the dopamine of reality 10:03 Academic affirmation: The Federal Reserve’s latest empirical research paper on Kalshi. Link to the Federal Reserve’s research paper: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2026010pap.pdf 12:35 Stanford professor Andrew Hall questioned: The trading volume of contracts with real social value is extremely low, but the trading volume of Super Bowl and celebrity gossip is hot https://freesystems.substack.com/p/building-the-truth-machine 15:38 Vitalik So what if I’m disappointed? The prediction market can become a public good for hedging risks, but if it moves toward rational pragmatism, "the game will turn back into a game between elites and institutions, and ordinary people will not even have the opportunity to express their opinions at the table." 18:47 The truth about subsidies under the zero-sum game and the dilemma of market makers 20:53 The existing CTF (Conditional Token Framework/Order Book) model is highly dependent on the platform burning money to subsidize market makers 22:57 The pricing of long-tail events is stuck, and the fear of market makers is only willing to make markets for events such as sports and elections that are easy to build probability models. 26:12 Insider trading is right and wrong: the prediction market has become an intelligence market and a social manipulator. 36:05 Media attempts to track insider trading in prediction markets. 39:31 Is there any essential difference between market testing and gambling? 42:41 Evolution and Prediction Market 3.0: The possibility of prediction market becoming TikTok [Later Period] AMEI [Operation] Zhu Jie [BGM] Mumbai - Ooyy