As the U.S. dollar strengthens, will Bitcoin follow suit? Relevance has completely changed in 2026, and institutions are rewriting the rules of the game!

Original author：加密头条

Original source：https://www.youtube.com/embed/UbPOYKED-Jc

In May 2026, the Bitcoin market is in a critical pricing paradigm transition period. The U.S. dollar index is strongly approaching 101 points, but Bitcoin did not fall as sharply as expected by traditional macro logic. Instead, it showed significant resilience near $80,000. In April this year, the 30-day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar index once hit -0.90, an extremely negative value in the past four years. However, the inverse relationship between the two subsequently diverged significantly, reflecting that Bitcoin’s pricing logic is evolving from a single “dollar-denominated mapping” to a compound equilibrium system in which institutional behavior, macro expectations, and market structure work together. The deep involvement of institutional funds is the core driving force of this structural change. In April 2026, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a monthly net inflow of approximately US$1.97 billion, and BlackRock IBIT alone received approximately US$2 billion. This continued strategic allocation has built an institutional buying buffer for Bitcoin to withstand macro shocks. Even in a tightening environment where the conflict in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices, expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have been completely wiped out, and even interest rate hikes have begun to be priced in, Bitcoin has remained relatively strong. Technical aspects and on-chain data further confirm this judgment. A group of super whales holding more than 10,000 Bitcoins began to increase their holdings on a large scale near $66,000, with an additional balance of about 140,000. The simultaneous increase in holdings by retail investors and whales is usually interpreted as a signal of healthy accumulation. The implied volatility in the options market fell back to around 34.6%, and the volatility risk premium remained positive, suggesting that the market is still cautious about short-term direction choices. The negative Gamma position of approximately US$2 billion near US$82,000 may become an amplifier of short-term fluctuations, while the area below US$68,000 to US$60,000 forms the core line of defense for institutional cost support. Looking forward to the second half of 2026, under the base scenario, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate widely in the range of 68,000 to 85,000 US dollars, with institutional buying and the macro pressure of a strengthening US dollar creating a tug of war. The optimistic scenario requires an easing of tensions in the Middle East or an unexpected drop in U.S. inflation to open up space for policy easing, while the pessimistic scenario corresponds to a large-scale deleveraging resonance triggered by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. No matter where it ends up, a clear trend has been established: Bitcoin is transforming from a speculative product driven by retail investor sentiment to a macro-sensitive asset dominated by institutional participation.