Market outlook – calendar week 23

Original author：Marktanalysen · Strategien · Risiko-Management

Original source：https://www.youtube.com/embed/hCqwkz3Vsdg

Current information at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/quantumdataanalytics 📆 Market outlook – week 23 | Review of week 22 & outlook 📉 Market: The past trading week remained strongly event-driven - characterized by macro data, credit stress, AI valuations and geopolitics. The decisive factor was the overall effect on the US dollar, returns, liquidity and risk budget. The USA showed a mixed picture, while China continued to act as an important liquidity and growth channel. 🧭 Market Structure: Bitcoin remained the primary guiding structure. Altcoins reacted more strongly to short-term flows, order book depth, unlocks and derivatives positioning. Bitcoin dominance is at 57.97% and signals further capital commitment in the core beta. BTC is trading at around $73,755, ETH at around $2,018. The total crypto market cap is around $2.54 trillion. USD. Futures open interest is around $24.7 billion for BTC and around $12.0 billion for ETH. 📊 Indicators: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 28 points and is therefore in the Fear area. Increased BTC dominance, defensive sentiment and high macro dependence describe a selective market regime. Global M2 is around 102.1 trillion. USD, with a 12-month change of around +9.68%. The US 10Y yield is around 4.45%, the US 10Y real interest rate is around 2.06%. 🛡️ Quantum Status: In week 22, 0 research signals were activated. The net exposure was around 0%, the research P/L was 0.00%. Research mode remains active. Reason: a strongly event-driven regime with an increased risk of regime misclassification. Macro windows, geopolitical headlines, credit stress, AI valuations and unclear derivative positioning reduced the power of stable setup patterns. ➡️ Outlook week 23: The focus is on China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US-ISM, JOLTS, China Services and Composite PMI, ADP, ISM Services, Factory Orders, Fed Beige Book, US initial jobless claims as well as Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate. This data directly affects digital assets through interest rate expectations, real returns, US dollars and risk appetite. Crypto-specifically, token unlocks remain relevant, especially for Solana, Canton, Sui and Layer One X. They are not an overall market driver, but can increase local volatility with limited order book depth. Additionally, ETF flows, regulation and geopolitical headlines remain relevant risk factors. 📊 Bias: Bitcoin remains the primary guiding structure. Commitments in the Altcoin segment only take place if there is verifiable market breadth, a stable liquidity structure and confirmed follow-up flow. Around US data windows, China PMIs, labor market data and major unlocks, the focus is on slippage control, leverage reduction and disciplined execution. Note: Not investment advice. Research & market observation for informational purposes.