Ray Dalio warns of bubble bursting: Is Bitcoin’s plunge just the beginning?

Original author：霍比特小灰

Original source：https://www.youtube.com/embed/uh6BtwV--88

👉Preview and join as a member: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCq_uARg8CRY2YeV2loQ7O_A/join👈 The focus of Dalio’s talk this time is not to simply be short on AI, but to remind a more realistic problem: great technological revolutions often create huge asset bubbles. AI can really bring productivity improvements, but if funds push related stocks, computing power, infrastructure, and valuations too high, the final real dangerous moment will be when someone is forced to convert paper wealth into cash. Rising interest rates, debt pressure, financing tightening, margin pressure, and wealth taxes may all become trigger points to burst the bubble. This video combines the collapse of Bitcoin, the follow-up decline of AI stocks, and the reduction of leveraged funds to explain Dalio's logic: why AI technology is real and market risks are also rising. #AI #US stock #Bitcoin #Dario #Technology Stock #Investment #Bubble Timestamp: 00:00 Why Dalio is worth talking about Bitcoin’s sudden plunge, and AI stocks also followed suit. This is consistent with the bubble logic that Dalio recently talked about. 04:09 Why is it easy for great technological revolutions to create bubbles? AI companies invest desperately in order not to fall behind, and investors also directly map technological prospects to stock prices. In the end, overconstruction and artificially high valuations are prone to occur. 06:09 Great technology does not mean that stocks will definitely make money. Dalio emphasized that the long-term value of AI can be great, but if the stock price is overdrawn too much in advance, people who buy it may still lose money. 06:47 Wealth and cash are two different things. Book wealth can be quickly created through valuation, but what can really be used to pay off debts, pay taxes, and consume is cash. The greater the paper wealth, the greater the shortage of cash and the more fragile the system. 07:44 The key trigger for when a bubble will burst is usually when someone has to sell assets for cash, such as rising interest rates, debt maturities, difficulty in financing, margin pressure, or tax pressure. 08:54 AI will increase productivity and widen the wealth gap. AI benefits may be concentrated in the hands of a few people with technology, capital and equity, and ordinary people may not benefit at the same time. This may also bring about subsequent policy pressure. 09:40 Dalio’s judgment: The market is approaching the bubble range. Bridgewater’s internal indicators show that the current market is getting closer to the historical bubble level, but it has not yet reached the extreme state of 2000 or 1929. 10:12 Bubble formation and bubble bursting are two stages. Bubbles can continue to grow bigger and the market can continue to rise. What really matters is whether the degree of the bubble and the factors that puncture the bubble appear at the same time. 11:38 The plunge of Bitcoin may indicate that highly leveraged institutions, hedge funds, leveraged ETFs, and some quantitative funds will sell the most liquid assets first when pressure occurs, and Bitcoin may become one of the first assets to be sold. 13:20 It is not yet possible to conclude whether Bitcoin is a precursor to a stock market decline, but as a 24-hour trading asset with good liquidity, Bitcoin is often sold first when funds reduce risk. This time, AI stocks and S&P also followed suit slightly. ⚠️Disclaimer: The content of this video is only for information sharing and market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. All opinions are derived from public information. Investment is risky and caution is required when entering the market.