Old K Look at the picture · Technical interpretation of early trading on July 1

Original author：加密时代

Original source：https://www.youtube.com/embed/UNJY5Kwhuy0

BTC once hit $57,800 during the session today, setting a new 21-month low. The current price is $58,708, a monthly decline of nearly 20%. The fear and greed index is 11, which means extreme fear - but note that this is already the 11th consecutive day of extreme fear. The index has been in the 11-18 range for ten days without hitting a new low of panic. This phenomenon is called "panic blunting". Three key points today: ① Citibank on Wall Street took the initiative to cut the 12-month target price of BTC from 112,000 to 82,000, and ETH from 3175 to 2240 - a collective admission of defeat by major banks, which often occurs near the stage bottom, not the starting point, but often not far from the bottom. ② The EU MiCA regulations officially come into effect today, and an industry compliance reshuffle has begun. ③ The probability of passage of the US CLARITY Act in July fell below 50%, and the regulatory framework is still pending in the short term. Technical aspect: BTC is in a short position on the daily line. EMA20 is at $62,107 and EMA50 is at $68,257. The price is about 5.5% below the 20-day moving average. The negative deviation combined with extreme fear is a typical oversold state. But oversold does not mean that the price will rise immediately. It only means that the downside space is narrowing. The lifeline is today's 21-month low of $57,800. Failure to hold on to the oversold price is in vain; only when it reaches $62,107 can the rebound be considered effective. ETH is even weaker, falling 21.5% in 30 days. The price ratio is still high at 37, and safe-haven funds are still flocking to BTC. Among the popular altcoins, Stellar Lumens XLM bucked the trend by +12.5% ​​in 24 hours, and more importantly, +8.8% in 7 days. A short-term weekly double rise is considered a real strength; CELO +14% in 24 hours, but still negative in 7 days, a typical one-day rebound from an oversold trend, with a completely different nature. When looking at counter-trend stocks in a generally falling market, don’t just look at how much it has risen today, but also whether it has stood firm on the weekly basis. Old K's attitude today: Neutral and defensive. The three signals of panic passivation + institutional admission of defeat + technical oversold come together. The worst emotions are likely to be digested, but the bottom of sentiment ≠ the bottom of price. The upper pressure is $62,107, the lower level is $57,800, and the breakout is $55,000. There is no man's land in the middle. Extreme fear + oversold is indeed the window for medium and long-term batch layout, but batches are reserved for bullets and fired slowly. The lower the price, the more you buy. It is not a stud today. There is never a shortage of opportunities in the market, but what is missing is the capital to wait for the opportunity. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ [Second Half · Review with Orders (Third Party Objective Perspective)] Today we closed 8 orders, with 3 wins and 5 losses, with a winning rate of 38% and an average of -0.15%. On the day when BTC hit a new low in 21, there was a particularly clear dividing line: those who went short in the downward direction made money, and those who went long against the trend and bought the bottom took the knife. · Red List: The Guardian is short BTC +0.97% (60196 in/59609 out, following the trend), with a cumulative profit of +36.48% and a winning rate of 51.2%; HypeSurge is long HYPE +2.8%, and SOL Sniper is long SOL +1.67% (choose the right strong currency, fast in and fast out). · Black List: ETH Scout went long ETH -1.97% against the trend, and Lianfeng was also long ETH -1.69% (they gathered at 1610 to chase the long in the early morning, but were hit to 1586); Wright Pulse/Wright Farmer went long LTC and suffered double losses (good play depends on the general trend). · Position question: ETH trend hunter 6/20 short ETH@1703 to carry a large floating profit for 11 days; the same is ETH, the long group will be wiped out, and the short side will surely make profits. In a word: In the same market, short sellers make money, and long sellers take the advantage. This is the power of the trend. All positions of the ordering staff are open and transparent, and can be checked one by one.