Judgment of Bitcoin’s one-year trend

Original author：南洋野狼 Crypto

Original source：https://www.youtube.com/embed/0pfALHai5UQ

#Bitcoin #Bitcoin #BTC Where will Bitcoin go in the next year? As of July 25, Bitcoin was oscillating around $64,000, with a significant retracement from its previous high. What the market really needs to judge now is not the short-term rise or fall, but whether this round of adjustment is bottoming out or whether it will enter a deeper deleveraging stage. This video will start from the three most critical underlying variables: First, whether ETF funds have shifted from continuous outflow to steady return; second, what changes have occurred in the chip structure of long-term holders and short-term holders; third, how high interest rates, a strong U.S. dollar, and real interest rates will affect Bitcoin. The video will also analyze several price ranges that need to be focused on: $60,000: the first important support; $68,800: near the cost of short-term holders; $78,000-80,000: the key threshold for whether the market can return to an upward trend; $54,900: Once it falls, it may enter a deeper deleveraging range. There are three main paths that may emerge in the next year: Optimistic scenario: ETFs continue to flow in, real interest rates fall, and Bitcoin may launch an impact towards $95,000 or even higher. Baseline scenario: The price fluctuates between US$60,000 and US$80,000 and reaches a bottom, waiting for new funding and liquidity turning points. Pessimistic scenario: The macro environment continues to deteriorate, ETF outflows continue again, and the price may backtest to US$50,000 or even around US$42,000. What determines the next round of trends is not emotions and slogans, but changes in real capital flows, chip distribution and macro liquidity. Timestamp: 00:00 The current price of Bitcoin has retraced from its historical high 00:21 Core judgment: Build a bottom first in the next year, and then choose a direction 00:53 Funding: ETF capital flow has reached an inflection point 01:22 ETF funds began to flow back intermittently in July 02:00 The chip structure releases a positive signal 02:11 The supply proportion of long-term holders has reached a record high 02:39 Long-term holders have restarted to increase their holdings 03:16 The macro environment is still the greatest uncertainty 03:50 Bitcoin’s key support and resistance positions 04:21 Three trend scenarios for the next year 04:41 Optimistic scenario: impact of US$95,000 or higher 04:58 Baseline scenario: shock bottom of US$60,000 to US$80,000 05:08 Pessimistic scenario: testing down to US$50,000 or even US$42,000 05:20 Three major variables that determine the trend of Bitcoin 05:29 Three Things Ordinary Investors Need to Keep an Eye on The Channel will continue to pay attention to important changes in the Bitcoin, Ethereum and digital currency markets, and share independent judgments on the market based on capital flow, on-chain data, macro environment and price structure. Disclaimer: This video is only for market analysis, information sharing and educational exchange, and does not constitute any investment advice, buying and selling advice or profit commitment. Cryptocurrency prices fluctuate greatly. Please make independent judgments based on your own risk tolerance and do risk management.