Bitcoin bear market cycle repeating itself? The key decision after 367 days!

Original author：区块拿铁

Original source：https://www.youtube.com/embed/_ILfNu3b52g

Contact information: Assistant Wechat: STlszhuli (reply patiently in seconds) Sui and Tang Wechat: shengxiaruchu009 (reply by chance~) Aircraft: @MMCsuitang Small aircraft group → @qukuainatie8888 Penguin👗: 892193704 Bybit: https://partner.bybit.com/b/SUITANG01 Invitation code: SUITANG01 Maximum reward of 3000 USDT 🎁 From the top of this round of Bitcoin on October 6, 2025, exactly 366 days have passed. The past three mature bear markets took 406 days, 364 days and 366 days from top to bottom respectively. According to historical rules, we are now entering the most noteworthy bottom window of the four-year cycle. Is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle timing declining? ——As of October 2026... But the market has seen a very obvious change: BTC's lowest daily closing so far occurred as early as the end of June. In July, the intraday low was about $57,700, and it has now returned to around $85,000. Therefore, in this video, I will not discuss "whether the four-year cycle is correct or not", but rather address a more practical question: If you are still optimistic about Bitcoin in the long term, but you have been keeping a short position because you are waiting for the last drop of the four-year cycle, should you continue to wait now? This issue will dismantle the real mechanism behind the four-year cycle, why the supply shock of halving is getting smaller and smaller, how the US spot ETF changes the capital structure of Bitcoin, and what risks are taken by continuing to wait and starting to build a position now. My final judgment is clear: I will not continue to maintain a zero position just because I cannot guess the lowest point. This does not mean that it confirms that $57,700 is the final bottom, nor does it mean that it is time to go all-in. What really needs to be compared is which one is easier to manage and fix between the two errors of "buying too early" and "buying too late". For those who are optimistic about BTC in the long term, are prepared to hold it for more than two or three years, do not use leverage, and can withstand large fluctuations, I would prefer to move from zero to non-zero positions and start building positions in batches. Is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle timing declining? ——As of October 2026... What investment really needs to manage is never the lowest point, but uncertainty. Weex weex 40% off discount: Invitation code: suitang01 Link: https://weabaxx.site/zh-CN/register?vipCode=suitang01 Exchange fee discount: 20% off! 20% off! 20% off! Ouxyi: https://www.ouxyi.shoes/join/SUITANG Invitation code: suitang bitget: https://partner.bitget.fit/bg/xm5j3252 Invitation code: xm5j3252 Binance: Recommendation code: EO5678PC Recommended link: https://www.binance.com/join?ref=EO5678PC Buy me coffee trc20 address: TP4zZ6ovhQBfNPnern67RysKzq2K6qsSe3