About 400 million DOGE hit Binance as Dogecoin [DOGE] dropped back to its $0.17 support level from a month ago. With DOGE still nursing a 31% drop from its May highs, this move could be smart money looking to break even.

隨著Dogecoin [Doge]的降至一個月前的0.17 $ 0.17的支持水平，大約有4億多名載人binance。由於Doge仍在護理5月的高點下降31％，因此這一舉動可能是聰明的錢，希望破產。

Now the big question is – Are they ready to exit, or will FOMO keep them holding?

現在，最大的問題是 - 他們準備退出，還是FOMO會保持他們的持有？

That’s likely what’ll decide if DOGE can hold $0.17 or if it ends up slipping below it.

這可能會決定Doge是否可以持有$ 0.17，或者最終是否在其下方滑行。

Same playbook, different cycle – DOGE runs into the sell wall

同一本劇本，不同的循環 - 大門跑到賣牆上

A closer look at on-chain data revealed that 30% of DOGE addresses are now holding at a loss, with acquisition prices sitting above the press time spot of $0.18.

仔細觀察鏈上的數據表明，現在有30％的門檻地址虧損，收購價格超過了新聞時間的0.18美元。

More critically, since DOGE broke below the $0.20 support, HODLers have begun capitulating. In fact, over $800 million in realized losses were recorded in the last three days alone.

更重要的是，由於Doge損失了0.20美元的支持，因此Hodlers已經開始屈服。實際上，僅在過去三天內就記錄了超過8億美元的已實現損失。

This wave of losses coincided with DOGE’s drop to $0.1680, signaling growing sell pressure.

這浪的損失與Doge的下降到0.1680美元相吻合，這標誌著賣出壓力的增長。

The 400 million inflow into Binance only strengthens the idea that holders are preparing to sell into strength—if any remains.

4億美元流入託管只會增強持有人準備將其賣給力量的想法，如果有遺體。

Source: Glassnode

來源：玻璃節

However, it’s not the diamond hands flinching. It’s the short to mid-term holders feeling the pressure.

但是，這不是鑽石之手退縮。這是在中期持有者感到壓力的短時間。

In true DOGE fashion, the “buy low, sell the pump” crowd capped the rally, once again steering DOGE into a familiar speculative cycle. In turn, pushing a chunk of addresses underwater.

以真正的道路方式，“低矮，出售泵”人群封鎖了集會，再次將道路轉向了一個熟悉的投機循環。反過來，將大部分地址推向水下。

Short-term distribution squeezes profit margins

短期分銷擠壓利潤率

As Dogecoin tested the $0.25 resistance level, the Short-Term Holder NUPL flipped negative, signaling a full capitulation phase in this cohort.

當Dogecoin測試了0.25美元的電阻水平時，短期持有人nupl翻轉負面，這在該隊列中表明了一個完整的投降階段。

Such a capitulation has intensifed downside pressure, forcing DOGE below the critical $0.20 support level. It has also compressed profit margins, while triggering a broader erosion of holder conviction.

這樣的投降增強了下行壓力，迫使多門低於$ 0.20的支持水平。它還壓縮了利潤率，同時引發了更廣泛的持有人定罪的侵蝕。

Source: Glassnode

來源：玻璃節

In fact, the HODL Waves seemed to reinforce this picture too. The 3–6 month cohort’s share of Dogecoin supply surged from 10% in March to 15.53% at the rally’s peak.

實際上，霍德波似乎也加強了這張照片。在拉力賽峰值上，3-6個月的隊列份額從3月的10％飆升至15.53％。

Right on cue, this cohort started trimming their bags, locking in profits, or exiting near breakeven. Their share has since dropped to 12.4% – A clear sign of distribution pressure kicking in.

就在提示上，這個隊列開始修剪自己的行李，鎖定利潤，或者在收支平衡附近退出。此後，他們的份額下降到12.4％，這是分配壓力啟動的明顯跡象。

In short, as short-term holders wave the white flag, the wider DOGE crowd is getting forced into realizing those losses.

簡而言之，隨著短期持有者揮舞白旗，更廣闊的總督人群被迫意識到這些損失。

Unless Dogecoin breaks free from this bubble, pushing past $0.25 is going to stay tough. That leaves the $0.17 support dangerously exposed.

除非Dogecoin擺脫了這個泡沫，否則將$ 0.25推到$ 0.25都將保持艱難。這使$ 0.17的支持危險地暴露了。