In a surprising finding for the crypto market, analysts believe that Dogecoin (DOGE), the original meme coin, has a clearer path to a spot ETF approval in the U.S. than Cardano (ADA), a leading smart contract platform. The analysis highlights the complex and often counter-intuitive nature of the U.S. regulatory landscape for digital assets.

在對加密市場的一個令人驚訝的發現中，分析師認為，原始模因硬幣Dogecoin（Doge）在美國獲得了ETF批准的途徑要比領先的智能合同平台（ADA）更清晰。該分析強調了美國監管格局用於數字資產的複雜且通常是反直覺的性質。

According to new data from Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas, the market is pricing in an 80% probability of a spot Dogecoin ETF approval in 2025, while Cardano’s odds sit slightly lower at 75%.

根據彭博情報分析師埃里克·巴爾庫納斯（Eric Balchunas）的新數據，該市場的定價為2025年的Dogecoin ETF批准的可能性為80％，而Cardano的賠率略低於75％。

Prob get some but hard to say how much and nothing will compare to bitcoin. We have a little saying on the team “the further away you get from btc, the less assets there will be”

可能會得到一些，但很難說出多少和什麼都不會與比特幣相比。我們對團隊有一點說：“您遠離BTC的距離越遠，資產就越少”

This comes as the market turns its attention to which altcoins will follow Bitcoin and Ethereum in securing their own exchange-traded funds. When a market participant questioned whether altcoins like Solana would attract the same kind of capital inflow that Bitcoin did with its ETF launch, Balchunas responded some inflows are to be expected.

這是因為市場將其註意力轉移到altcoins將跟隨比特幣和以太坊以確保自己的交易所交易資金的關注。當市場參與者質疑像Solana這樣的AltCoins是否會吸引比特幣在ETF發佈時吸引相同的資本流入時，Balchunas會回應一些流入。

Dogecoin: On Relatively Firm Regulatory Ground

Dogecoin：在相對牢固的監管場上

Dogecoin, once viewed as a speculative asset driven by internet culture, is now seen as being on relatively firm regulatory ground. A key factor is that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) already regulates Dogecoin futures, which adds to its credibility as a commodity, a crucial status for ETF approval.

Dogecoin曾經被視為由互聯網文化驅動的投機資產，現在被視為處於相對堅定的監管場面。一個關鍵因素是，商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）已經調節了Dogecoin期貨，這增加了其作為商品的信譽，這是ETF批准的關鍵地位。

Several major asset managers, including Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares, have already filed for spot Dogecoin ETFs. The final SEC deadline for a decision on these applications is set for October 17, 2025.

幾位主要資產經理，包括灰度，位和21shares，已經申請了dogecoin ETF。對這些申請決定的最終SEC截止日期定於2025年10月17日。

Based on the chart above, DOGE trades at $0.1984, up almost 4% in the past 24 hours. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads a value of 49.39, just around the neutral territory, indicating that the bulls and the bears are matched. The MACD indicator shows a bullish divergence, suggesting a massive DOGE rally.

根據上圖，Doge的交易價格為0.1984美元，在過去24小時內增長了近4％。相對強度指數（RSI）在中性領土附近讀取49.39的值，表明公牛和熊是匹配的。 MACD指示器顯示了看漲的分歧，表明了大量的門將集會。

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Cardano: A More Cautious Outlook

卡爾達諾：更謹慎的前景

While Cardano is viewed as a top DeFi coin and has a good chance of gaining ETF approval, its path appears slightly more challenging. So far, only Grayscale has filed for a spot Cardano ETF. Although analysts believe the SEC is likely to view ADA as a commodity, it does not yet have a CFTC-regulated futures market.

儘管Cardano被視為最佳抗議硬幣，並且有很大的機會獲得ETF批准，但其道路似乎更具挑戰性。到目前為止，只有灰度申請了Cardano ETF。儘管分析師認為SEC可能會將ADA視為商品，但尚未擁有CFTC調節的期貨市場。

The final SEC decision deadline for the Cardano application is October 23, 2025.

Cardano申請的最終SEC決定截止日期是2025年10月23日。

As per the chart above, from early February to early March, ADA experienced a significant decline, breaking below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating strong bearish momentum. Following this sharp drop, the price entered a period of consolidation and gradual recovery through late March and April. During this time, the price largely stayed within the Bollinger Bands.

根據上圖，從2月初到3月初，Ada的下降大幅下降，突破了下Bollinger樂隊，表明看跌勢頭強勁。在這種急劇下降之後，價格進入了3月下旬和4月的合併和逐步恢復期。在此期間，價格很大程度上停留在布林樂隊內。

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Further, the Balance of Power indicator, fluctuating around the zero line throughout this period, suggests a relatively balanced struggle between buyers and sellers, with no sustained strong buying or selling pressure dominating for extended periods.

此外，在此期間，電源指標的平衡圍繞零線的波動，這表明買賣雙方之間的鬥爭相對平衡，沒有持續的強勁買入或銷售壓力佔據了長時間。

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