The calculus of investing in Bitcoin (BTC) is simple: lower lows point to more lows, while higher lows signal a pending high, according to the analysis by crypto derivatives exchange Bitfinex.

根据加密衍生品交换Bitfinex的分析，对比特币（BTC）投资的演算很简单：下低点指向更高的低点，而较高的低点则表示待定高。

The analysis began by noting that Bitcoin price action has been displaying a series of lower lows since December 2021, suggesting a bearish trend unfolding in the short term.

该分析首先指出，比特币价格动作一直显示出一系列较低的低点，自2021年12月以来，这表明短期内发生了看跌趋势。

The analysis highlighted that Bitcoin is currently testing the lower Fibonacci level, which could serve as a point of contention between buyers and sellers.

分析强调，比特币目前正在测试较低的斐波那契水平，这可能是买卖双方之间的争论点。

"A break below this Fibonacci, especially on a decisive close, would signal a continuation of the bearish trend and open up potential targets lower, signaled by the next Fibonacci levels or the 1.272 Fib, if we're considering Fibonacci extensions," the exchange explained.

交易所解释说：“如果我们正在考虑考虑斐波那契分机，则低于该斐波那契，尤其是在决定性的关闭时，会表明延续看跌趋势并打开潜在目标较低的范围，并由下一个斐波那契水平或1.272 FIB发出信号。”

The exchange also noted that a break above the Fibonacci, particularly on a decisive candle, signals a structural shift into bullish territory.

交易所还指出，斐波那契上方的突破，尤其是在决定性的蜡烛上，标志着向看涨领土的结构转变。

"This scenario would indicate that buyers are gaining strength and could push for higher price action, signaled by a move to the 0.618 Fib, followed by the 0.5 Fib, if the 0.618 Fib is crossed and closed above," it added.

它补充说：“这种情况将表明买家正在增强实力，并可能推动更高的价格行动，这是通过转移到0.618 fib，然后是0.5 fib的信号，如果在上方越过0.618 FIB并关闭了0.618 FIB。”

The analysis also touched upon the implications of the 200-week moving average, noting that it is currently serving as a strong support level for Bitcoin.

该分析还涉及200周移动平均线的含义，并指出它目前是比特币的强大支持水平。

"A glance at the weekly chart reveals that the 200-week moving average is providing support at around $87,441, a level that could be crucial in the short term," it said.

它说：“一瞥每周的图表表明，200周的移动平均水平为87,441美元左右，这一水平在短期内可能至关重要。”

Pointing out that the price has tested this support on several occasions, the analysis stated that sellers are attempting to break below it to continue the downtrend.

该分析指出，价格已经多次测试了这一支持，分析指出，卖方试图在其下方打破以继续下降趋势。

"However, buyers have managed to defend this support so far, suggesting a balance of strength between the two parties," it added.

它补充说：“但是，到目前为止，买家已经设法捍卫了这一支持，这表明双方之间的实力平衡。”

The analysis concluded by stating that a break below the 200-week moving average could signal a weakness in demand, paving the way for a deeper correction.

分析得出的结论是指出，低于200周的移动平均线可能会标志着需求疲软，为更深入的校正铺平了道路。

"This scenario would likely see sellers aiming for the 127.2 Fib, followed by the 161.8 Fib, if the 127.2 Fib is crossed and closed below, considering further Fibonacci extensions," the exchange said.

交易所表示：“这种情况可能会看到卖方的目标是127.2 fib，然后是161.8 fib，如果考虑进一步的斐波那契扩展，则越过127.2 fib并关闭了下面的127.2 fib。”