So far in 2025, the stock market has been a mixed bag. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average have all exhibited higher than usual levels of volatility. Between mixed economic data and ongoing tariff negotiations with trade partners, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the equity markets.

到目前为止，到2025年，股票市场一直是一个混合的袋子。标准普尔500指数，纳斯达克复合材料和道琼斯工业平均平均水平都比平常的波动率更高。在混合经济数据和与贸易伙伴进行的持续关税谈判之间，股票市场周围存在很多不确定性。

During times like these, it's not unusual for investors to sell their stocks and redeploy capital into alternatives such as commodities, real estate, or even cryptocurrency. Over the last year, one cryptocurrency that has seen quite a bit of action is Dogecoin (DOGE -4.30%).

在这样的时期，投资者将其股票和重新部门重新部门出售为商品，房地产甚至加密货币等替代品并不罕见。在过去的一年中，有很多动作的加密货币是Dogecoin（Doge -4.30％）。

While Dogecoin's momentum can be tempting to follow, I think its price could be headed to new lows sooner rather than later. Let's explore Dogecoin's price action over the last several months and try to uncover what's been driving interest in this specific cryptocurrency. From there, I'll detail why I think Dogecoin could be headed for a precipitous sell-off.

虽然Dogecoin的势头可能会很容易遵循，但我认为它的价格可能会更早而不是较晚。让我们探索过去几个月来Dogecoin的价格行动，并试图发现对这种特定加密货币的兴趣。从那里开始，我将详细介绍为什么我认为Dogecoin可能会出现艰巨的抛售。

Taking a closer look at the Dogecoin roller coaster

仔细观察Dogecoin过山车

The chart below illustrates Dogecoin's price action over the last 12 months. Although its price is up 37% over the last year, recent trends clearly show that Dogecoin is trading well below prior highs.

下图说明了Dogecoin在过去12个月中的价格行动。尽管其价格比去年增长了37％，但最近的趋势清楚地表明，Dogecoin的交易远低于先前的高点。

Dogecoin Price data by YCharts

YCHARTS的Dogecoin价格数据

What may have caused the rapid ascent and descent of Dogecoin

是什么可能导致狗狗币的快速上升和下降

Does anything stick out to you as it relates to the timing of Dogecoin's rise and its more recent sell-off?

与Dodecoin崛起的时机及其最近的抛售有关的时机是否有任何兴趣？

Per the graph above, Dogecoin experienced an unprecedented rally in November. But why? In my opinion, I think Dogecoin's parabolic rise was correlated with the outcome of the presidential election.

根据上图，Dogecoin在11月经历了前所未有的集会。但为什么？我认为，我认为Dogecoin的抛物线上升与总统大选的结果相关。

Following Donald Trump's reelection in November, he created a new task force called the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Moreover, Tesla CEO Elon Musk was nominated to lead this initiative.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）于11月连任后，他成立了一个名为政府效率部（DOGE）的新工作组。此外，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）被提名为这项倡议。

In years past, Musk has demonstrated some support for Dogecoin -- albeit in joking and facetious ways (like referring to himself as "The Dogefather" on an episode of Saturday Night Live). Nevertheless, it's my thinking that some investors began creating a narrative that the acronym for the Department of Government Efficiency, coupled with Musk's involvement, would somehow result in an endorsement for Dogecoin. In some ways, I can understand how an investor would connect these dots.

在过去的几年中，马斯克（Musk）对Dogecoin表示了一些支持 - 尽管在开玩笑和方面的方式（例如在《星期六夜现场》的一集中称自己为“ Dogefather”）。尽管如此，我认为一些投资者开始创造一种叙述，即政府效率部的首字母缩写，再加上马斯克的参与，以某种方式会导致对Dogecoin的认可。在某些方面，我可以理解投资者将如何连接这些点。

However, in truly ironic fashion, I think Dogecoin's sell-off in recent months also revolves around Musk.

但是，以具有讽刺意味的方式，我认为Dogecoin最近几个月的抛售也围绕着马斯克旋转。

During an interview a couple of months ago, Musk explained that the U.S. government does not have any plans to use Dogecoin.

在几个月前的一次采访中，马斯克解释说，美国政府没有任何使用Dogecoin的计划。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

Is Dogecoin a buy right now?

Dogecoin现在是购买吗？

If you think about the big picture, most (if not all) of Dogecoin's price action over the last year has been rooted in narratives as opposed to any fundamental truths. Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, Dogecoin doesn't have much in the way of utility. It is a meme coin and shouldn't be taken too seriously.

如果您考虑一下大局，那么去年的大多数（如果不是全部）Dogecoin的价格行动就植根于叙事中，而不是任何基本真理。与比特币或以太坊不同，Dogecoin的实用性不大。这是一个模因硬币，不应该太认真。

While it's entirely possible it could experience a rally here and there, historical trends suggest these rises are often fleeting. As a long-term investor, I'm not interested in getting caught up in a momentum trade and being left holding the bag.

虽然完全有可能在这里和那里经历集会，但历史趋势表明这些升起通常是短暂的。作为一名长期投资者，我对陷入势头交易并持有袋子的行为不感兴趣。

With Musk telling investors that his time at DOGE will reduce significantly over the coming months, I think the narrative that Dogecoin will somehow benefit from him leading DOGE's efforts will fade. Given its high degree of speculation and Musk throwing water on the idea that the government may leverage Dogecoin in some capacity, my prediction is that Dogecoin will lose whatever support it has left and crater to new lows by the end of the year.

马斯克告诉投资者，他在门卫的时间将在接下来的几个月中大大减少，我认为Dogecoin将以某种方式受益于他带领Doge的努力的叙述将消失。鉴于其高度的猜测和麝香扔水，即政府可以以某种身份利用狗狗币的想法，我的预测是，狗狗币将失去其剩下的任何支持，并在今年年底之前遍及新的低点。

For these reasons, I would pass on Dogecoin and avoid investing in the cryptocurrency.

由于这些原因，我会传递Dogecoin并避免投资加密货币。