Key bitcoin (BTC) indicators are signaling a potential shift to a bearish market regime as traders await Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

关键比特币（BTC）指标表明，随着贸易商在等待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）研讨会上的讲话时，潜在转移到看跌市场。

The first one is the 180-day call-put skew derived from options trading on Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange by volume and open interest.

第一个是从deribit上的期权交易中得出的180天呼叫偏斜，这是按数量和开放兴趣的最大加密期权交换。

As of writing, the 180-day skew was negative 0.42, the lowest since June 2023, according to data source Amberdata. A negative call-put skew suggests that traders are pricing in greater demand for put options (which offer protection against price declines) relative to call options. The data can be interpreted as rising market caution or bearish sentiment over the medium term.

根据数据源Amberdata的数据，截至写作时，180天的偏斜为0.42，是自2023年6月以来最低的。负面的呼叫偏斜表明，与呼叫期权相比，交易者的定价更大的PUT期权（可保护价格下降）。数据可以解释为中期的市场谨慎或看跌情绪。

"BTC longer dated skew flipping into put premium could be a sign of regime shift," Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insights, said on X.

“ BTC更长的日期偏斜倒入Put Premium可能是政权转移的迹象，” Options Insights创始人Imran Lakha在X上说。

The negative reading comes across as a regime shift, as it follows two years of consistently positive values, which reflected a bias toward bullish call options.

负面阅读是一种政权的转变，因为它始终是两年的积极价值，这反映了对看涨呼叫选择的偏见。

More importantly, BTC has only pulled back by roughly 8% from its record highs above $124,000, which were reached a week ago. Yet, the long-term sentiment has flipped bearish.

更重要的是，BTC仅从一周前达到的纪录高于124,000美元的纪录高点降低了约8％。然而，长期的情绪使看跌了。

According to Lakha, the price pullback has triggered demand for put options.

根据Lakha的说法，价格下跌触发了对POT选项的需求。

"BTC and ETH skews are pulling toward put premium as markets correct. BTC doesn’t show a call premium again until March 2026. The move lower triggered buying of August/September puts around the $110,000 strike. Calls and call spreads are being sold as longs de-risk into Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday," Lakha said in a blog post.

Lakha在博客文章中说：“由于市场正确，BTC和ETH偏度正向投入溢价。直到2026年3月，BTC才会再次显示呼叫溢价。降低触发的行动触发了八月/九月的罢工量约为110,000美元的罢工。呼叫和呼叫传播是在周五的杰克逊·霍尔（Jackson Hole）周五的杰克逊·霍尔（Jackson Hole）上出售的。”

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the central bank's annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Most traders expect Powell to signal rate cuts starting from September and if he gives what's expected, the market may correct, according to Nansen's research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）定于周五在中央银行的年度杰克逊洞研讨会上发表讲话。根据Nansen的研究分析师Nicolai Sondergaard的说法，大多数交易者希望鲍威尔从9月开始发出信号降低，如果他给出了预期的，市场可能会纠正。

"At this stage, the market broadly expects cuts, so much of that is already priced in. If Powell delivers exactly what’s anticipated, crypto could see sideways to slightly bearish action, a classic “sell the news” dynamic. By contrast, if the Fed signals a deeper or faster cutting cycle than expected, that could spark fresh risk appetite and set the stage for the next bullish leg in crypto," Sondergaard said.

"At this stage, the market broadly expects cuts, so much of that is already priced in. If Powell delivers exactly what’s anticipated, crypto could see sideways to slightly bearish action, a classic “sell the news” dynamic. By contrast, if the Fed signals a deeper or faster cutting cycle than expected, that could spark fresh risk appetite and set the stage for the next bullish leg in crypto," Sondergaard said.

Stock traders chase puts

股票交易者追逐

The demand for downside protection in BTC is consistent with the activity on Wall Street, where traders have been preparing for a sell-off in the major technology stocks.

BTC对下行保护的需求与华尔街的活动一致，华尔街的活动正在准备在主要技术股票中抛售。

"Traders are buying 'disaster' puts on the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index," Jeff Jacobson, head of derivative strategy at 22V Research Group, told Bloomberg.

22V Research Group的衍生策略负责人Jeff Jacobson告诉Bloomberg：“交易者正在购买'灾难'的'灾难'ETF，该系列QQQ Trust 1 ETF追踪了纳斯达克100指数。”

Guppy multiple moving average indicator

Guppy多移动平均指标

The second indicator pointing to a bearish shift in the regime is the Guppy multiple moving average (GMMA) indicator.

指出该制度看跌的第二个指标是Guppy多重移动平均值（GMMA）指标。

Developed by Australian trader Daryl Guppy, the indicator is used to identify reversals and assess trend strength by analyzing the bands formed by short-term and long-term moving averages. A bullish cross occurs when the green band representing short-term moving averages crosses above the red band of long-term moving averages, indicating that upward momentum is gathering pace.

该指标由澳大利亚商人达里尔·孔佩（Daryl Guppy）开发，用于识别逆转并通过分析以短期和长期移动平均形成的频段来评估趋势强度。当代表短期移动平均线的绿色带上横穿长期移动平均线的红色带上方的绿色带时，就会发生看涨十字架，这表明向上的动量正在采取速度。

BTC's price has crossed below the Guppy moving average bands, a sign that bulls are losing control and the long-term sentiment may be turning bearish. This is often considered a warning sign that downside momentum is about to strengthen, paving the way for pronounced price weakness.

BTC的价格已经低于Guppy移动的平均乐队，这表明公牛正在失去控制权，并且长期情绪可能会变成看跌。这通常被认为是一个警告信号，即下行势头将要加强，为明显的价格疲软铺平了道路。

Other indicators, such as the MACD histogram, also suggest a strengthening of the downside momentum.

其他指标（例如MACD直方图）也表明了下行动量的加强。

Read more: Bitcoin Hovers at $113K; Solana and Dogecoin Lead Gains Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

阅读更多：比特币徘徊在$ 113K中； Solana和Dogecoin领先于Powell的Jackson Hole演讲之前