Crypto Market Under Pressure as Macro Headwinds Resurface

The crypto market is facing renewed pressure as macro headwinds return, putting a dampener on the recent bullish mood.

ADP's private employment report showed that U.S. companies cut back on hiring in December as the Omicron variant hit. The report follows closely held government statistics that showed a strong gain of 507,000 jobs in December, nearly double economists' expectations.

The crypto market is also grappling with renewed tariff uncertainty, which has potential to further dampen investor sentiment.

Here's a snapshot of some key developments and statistics in the crypto market on Thursday:

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Trader Notes:

Crypto trader Kevin has been persistently warning for weeks that Bitcoin is in a critical danger zone below $106,800. In his latest note, he urged traders to avoid overanalyzing and instead approach the market with maximum caution.

“Don’t get hit by a bear market because you’re too busy analyzing every little chart pattern. There is no time for false optimism,” he said.

Trader notes: Crypto trader Kevin has been persistently warning for weeks that Bitcoin is in a critical danger zone below $106,800. In his latest note, he urged traders to avoid overanalyzing and instead approach the market with maximum caution.

“Don’t get hit by a bear market because you’re too busy analyzing every little chart pattern. There is no time for false optimism,” he said.

In a follow-up post, Kevin outlined two scenarios:

Bearish case: A breakdown below $100,000–$103,000 could trigger a ~5% drop, aligning with the 0.5 Fib level and the daily super trend.

Bullish case: A reclaim of $106,800 would likely mark a scary but healthy retest, signaling a recovery.

He also flagged a key warning that multiple daily closes below $829 billion on Total 3 (altcoin market cap excluding BTC and ETH) would confirm a broader altcoin breakdown.

Crypto chart analyst Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin's MVRV Ratio has slipped below its 200-day SMA, which historically signals growing bearish momentum and hence, greater potential for downside.

"Bitcoin's MVRV Ratio has slipped below its 200-day SMA for the first time since November 2022," said Martinez.

"This is noteworthy because, in the past, sustained periods of the MVRV Ratio trading below its 200-day SMA have coincided with periods of amplified bearish momentum and heightened potential for further downside."

Chart: Ali Martinez / Data Via Glassnode

Adding to the cautious tone, Rekt Capital said Bitcoin is now in a transitional phase, attempting a post-breakout retest of its re-accumulation range.

Successfully holding this zone would confirm the shift into a new Price Discovery Uptrend (Phase 2). However, volatile deviations could occur before confirmation.