Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Prediction: Will ETFs Spark a Supply Shock or Will Macro Headwinds Derail Its Meme-Powered Resilience?

Dogecoin's uncapped supply (currently 149B DOGE) adds 5B new coins annually. While critics highlight this as inflationary pressure, developers maintain that:- Fixed block rewards (10k DOGE) mean inflation declines yearly (currently ~3.4% vs. 8% in 2023).

- Merge-mining with Litecoin ensures network security despite low transaction fees, rendering it largely irrelevant to users.

- Failed 2021-2025 proposals to cap supply at 250B kept the protocol stable but limited scarcity narratives, showcasing community priorities.

Dogecoin's path depends on whether ETF optimism and whale support outpace inflation worries and shaky technicals.

Huge potential for Dogecoin if they get the nod on ETFs

A 68% chance of approval by December according to Polymarket

21Shares and Grayscale both have active filings for a spot Bitcoin ETF

Optimism is certainly building

But ultimately it’s up to the SEC to decide

Dogecoin price is struggling to break out of the $0.22 - $0.24 range despite a 30% rally in August

Can it break out if the SEC grants approval for Bitcoin ETFs?

If so, then we could really see the meme coin take off

Especially considering that the apex coin has dropped to $104k recently

Leading to a knock-on effect on altcoins

Yet despite this setback, Dogecoin price is still up 18% over the last month

While also registering a 76% year-to-date return

Perhaps this is down to the meme coin's meme-powered resilience

Or maybe it's the threat of a supply shock

As the top 100 wallets have been accumulating DOGE since January

In fact, they've already gobbled up 3.4B meme coins

And they're not planning to stop there

Optimism is certainly building towards the potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

With a 68% chance of approval by December according to Polymarket, traders are setting bullish wagers.

Both 21Shares and Grayscale have active filings for a spot Bitcoin ETF, which are currently being reviewed by the SEC.

This optimism is reflected in the August performance of Dogecoin price.

The meme coin is struggling to break out of the $0.22 - $0.24 range despite a 30% rally.

But if we do see an explosiveness in crypto prices if the SEC grants approval for Bitcoin ETFs.

This would be particularly ironic considering that the apex coin has dropped to $104k recently.

Leading to a knock-on effect on altcoins and sparking fears of a new bear market.

Yet despite this setback, Dogecoin price is still up 18% over the last month.

While also registering a 76% year-to-date return

Perhaps this is down to the meme coin's meme-powered resilience or the threat of a supply shock.

As the top 100 wallets have been accumulating DOGE since January.

In fact, they've already gobbled up 3.4B meme coins

Coins which were funded by outflows from exchanges

According to Glassnode, there has been 7-day net deposits into exchanges.

This suggests that traders are taking some profits off the table.

However, considering that the 50-day SMA is at $0.194 and we've seen lows of $0.169 in 2025 at the $0.14 Fibonacci level.

Then perhaps traders will buy on dips if this support level is broken.

This would take the meme coin to lows not seen since 2024.

Dogecoin price technical analysis: MACD divergence signals weakening momentum

Dogecoin price is struggling to break out of the $0.22 - $0.24 range despite a 30% rally in August.

This move has seen the meme coin rally above the 50-day SMA at $0.194 and the $0.14 Fibonacci level, which are key support levels to watch.

A decisive break above the $0.24 high could open the door towards the $0.28 Fibonacci level.

However, MACD divergence suggests that the meme coin's momentum may be weakening.

The histogram is reading -0.004, which could indicate that the uptrend is slowing down.

This divergence usually occurs when the indicator is trending in one direction but the price action is moving in the opposite direction.

In addition, the MACD line is still in positive territory, which bodes well for the meme coin in the short term.

But if the MACD line drops below the zero line,