Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Reversal Threatens to Send Market Cap Below Key Support

Dogecoin has experienced heightened volatility over the last 48 hours, slipping from a brief peak of $0.185 to $0.172 at the time of writing. This price reversal places Dogecoin in a precarious position, once again threatening to fall below the $0.17 level that traders had hoped would flip into a new support base.

The sharp upswing and equally sharp retracement are the latest examples of DOGE’s erratic trading behavior, behavior that is now drawing comparisons to another macro-asset, Bitcoin’s performance against gold. A chart shared on social media platform X by Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst Mike McGlone presents an eye-catching overlay of Dogecoin's market cap trajectory and the Bitcoin-to-gold price ratio. According to McGlone, these two assets have been moving in the same manner for some time, exhibiting what he referred to as "same-chart syndrome."

Particularly, the chart shared by the analyst shows that Dogecoin's market cap and the Bitcoin/gold cross have been moving in tandem since December 2024. His analysis highlights how both assets have respected an upward trendline over the past several months but warns that this support may not last much longer.

The chart also shows that both assets experienced a steep rise in the first quarter of 2024, followed by a period of consolidation and a lower high in the second quarter. Afterwards, both assets pulled back sharply, finally crashing to the same extent as they rose earlier in the year.

The resemblance between Dogecoin's chart and Bitcoin's performance relative to gold signals to McGlone that a bearish outcome may be imminent. The synchronized patterns between the two charts, both rising aggressively in 2024 and then pulling back to an ascending support line, suggest that DOGE may be entering a bearish cycle rather than a full-fledged bullish cycle.

Particularly, McGlone expects the ascending support trendline to eventually be breached very soon. This would also send the Dogecoin market cap crashing, contradicting the prevailing sentiment among analysts, who are predicting a larger rally for DOGE before the end of the year.

However, McGlone did not base his bearish DOGE forecast solely on price action. In his post, he tied the predicted breakdown in both Dogecoin and Bitcoin/gold to broader macroeconomic developments, particularly the likelihood of a delayed recession hitting the US market.

"The U.S. recession window is closing, and the probability of a benign outcome for the world’s largest economy may be increasing, which could keep risky assets buoyant for a while longer," the analyst stated.

Notably, the ascending support line that has kept the Dogecoin market cap in place is currently around $22 billion, making this an important level to monitor. At the time of writing, DOGE is trading at $0.1720 with a market cap of $25.63 billion. Based on its current circulating supply of 148.98 billion, Dogecoin's market capitalization would fall below $22 billion if its price were to drop to $0.147.