Rising Anxiety among Long-Term Holders Is Driving Dogecoin's (DOGE) Social Sentiment That Points to Increased Price Volatility

Rising anxiety among long-term holders is fueling social sentiment, which in turn contributes to increased price volatility for Dogecoin (DOGE).

Specifically, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for long-term DOGE holders has transitioned from a state of belief and denial to optimism and anxiety, according to on-chain data from Glassnode shared by prominent cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez on March 30.

According to the analyst, such transitions in sentiment tend to be followed by heightened volatility.

As the data from Glassnode shows, the NUPL for long-term holders has been decreasing. This suggests that many investors who held DOGE for the long term are now approaching break-even or even realizing losses.

This change in sentiment coincides with a significant drop in DOGE’s price, which has seen a substantial decline in March, aligning with the broader cryptocurrency market trend.

Historical observations suggest that shifts in NUPL tend to precede noticeable swings in price. This implication is that Dogecoin could be poised for further turbulence in the coming weeks as the bears push lower.

In this case, the fear of additional losses may prompt some investors to close their positions, potentially accelerating selling pressure.

However, Dogecoin’s technical setup could potentially invalidate the current bearish outlook. In fact, an analysis shared by Martinez suggested that the meme cryptocurrency is likely to rebound, as it is currently positioned just above the lower boundary of the long-term ascending channel that has guided its price trajectory since 2015.

The coin is also being supported by the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, around $0.15, a zone often associated with bullish reversals. This technical alignment suggests that the current range, which is acting as a floor, could launch a rally if buying pressure intensifies.

Should Dogecoin attract renewed interest, an analysis suggests that the coin could rally towards the channel’s midline, which is located at $0.4, and then test higher resistance levels around $0.50 and $1.30, aligning with the 1 and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions.

Meanwhile, although Dogecoin has been largely impacted by broader market sentiment, there is still a chance for the coin to embark on a parabolic rally based on select fundamentals. For instance, an analysis by Benzinga earlier this year highlighted that a move toward mainstream adoption could trigger massive buying pressure.

This could be especially significant if the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves applications for spot DOGE exchange-traded funds (ETFs).