In a surprising finding for the crypto market, analysts believe that Dogecoin (DOGE), the original meme coin, has a clearer path to a spot ETF approval in the U.S. than Cardano (ADA), a leading smart contract platform. The analysis highlights the complex and often counter-intuitive nature of the U.S. regulatory landscape for digital assets.

According to new data from Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas, the market is pricing in an 80% probability of a spot Dogecoin ETF approval in 2025, while Cardano’s odds sit slightly lower at 75%.

Prob get some but hard to say how much and nothing will compare to bitcoin. We have a little saying on the team “the further away you get from btc, the less assets there will be”

This comes as the market turns its attention to which altcoins will follow Bitcoin and Ethereum in securing their own exchange-traded funds. When a market participant questioned whether altcoins like Solana would attract the same kind of capital inflow that Bitcoin did with its ETF launch, Balchunas responded some inflows are to be expected.

Dogecoin: On Relatively Firm Regulatory Ground

Dogecoin, once viewed as a speculative asset driven by internet culture, is now seen as being on relatively firm regulatory ground. A key factor is that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) already regulates Dogecoin futures, which adds to its credibility as a commodity, a crucial status for ETF approval.

Several major asset managers, including Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares, have already filed for spot Dogecoin ETFs. The final SEC deadline for a decision on these applications is set for October 17, 2025.

Based on the chart above, DOGE trades at $0.1984, up almost 4% in the past 24 hours. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads a value of 49.39, just around the neutral territory, indicating that the bulls and the bears are matched. The MACD indicator shows a bullish divergence, suggesting a massive DOGE rally.

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Cardano: A More Cautious Outlook

While Cardano is viewed as a top DeFi coin and has a good chance of gaining ETF approval, its path appears slightly more challenging. So far, only Grayscale has filed for a spot Cardano ETF. Although analysts believe the SEC is likely to view ADA as a commodity, it does not yet have a CFTC-regulated futures market.

The final SEC decision deadline for the Cardano application is October 23, 2025.

As per the chart above, from early February to early March, ADA experienced a significant decline, breaking below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating strong bearish momentum. Following this sharp drop, the price entered a period of consolidation and gradual recovery through late March and April. During this time, the price largely stayed within the Bollinger Bands.

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Further, the Balance of Power indicator, fluctuating around the zero line throughout this period, suggests a relatively balanced struggle between buyers and sellers, with no sustained strong buying or selling pressure dominating for extended periods.

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