EP-99 In the US-Iran conflict, is Bitcoin an escape asset?

Original author：吴说不加密播客

Original source：https://www.youtube.com/embed/tXvVR4kVXSE

This issue of Wu Shuo Space focuses on "What is the market trading after the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran?" The participating guests include secondary researcher Minta, cutting-edge technology investor didier, and macro hedge fund PM Griffin Ardern. The discussion believes that the current market is shifting from "short-term geopolitical shocks" to "long-term conflict pricing": changes in crude oil, shipping insurance, terminal commodity prices and some central bank policies indicate that the impact of the war has begun to penetrate into the global supply chain and inflation expectations. The two guests judged based on this that what deserves more attention in the future is not a single risk aversion, but the re-pricing of resources, transportation capacity and payment/trading channels. At the asset level, the discussion focused on several main lines: the first is hard assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and copper. Bitcoin is regarded as an "escape asset" in a war environment by some funds, but the short-term rise is still driven by liquidity and speculation; the second is copper, energy, mining, oil transportation, shipping and other resource chains. The core logic is that supply chain fragmentation and rising transportation costs will increase its strategic value; the third is the AI industry chain, especially storage, electricity, energy storage, and more unpredictable Agent payment, Agent Transactions and other directions; the fourth is commercial aerospace, drones, national defense and strategic metals. These tracks are regarded as direct beneficiaries of the spillover effects of war and the narrative of industrial upgrading. At the trading level, the overall strategy is defensive: core positions can continue to be held, but put option protection should be increased, reliance on the single asset of the U.S. dollar should be reduced, and moderate attention should be paid to the currencies of resource countries or exporting countries such as the euro and the Australian dollar. The speeches made by the guests do not represent Wu Shuo’s views and do not constitute any financial advice. Please pay attention to abide by local laws and regulations. To join the Wu Shuo Podcast listening group, you can add the assistant WeChat ipo19841984 to follow more Wu Shuo news depth and other content channels: https://www.wublock123.com/html/app/ Timeline: 00:00 Opening: Is the impact of the US-Iraq war long-term or short-term? 01:44 Shipping costs, insurance premiums and terminal prices are rising, and signs of long-term conflict are emerging 05:48 Cryptocurrency performance is stronger than expected and is regarded as a capital channel in special times 09:09 The United States has limited ability to suppress oil prices, and strategic oil reserves are difficult to solve the medium-term dilemma 15:28 High oil prices, shipping obstructions and imported inflation may become the main risks in the future 21:09 US stocks are still optimistic, but the prediction market shows that the probability of prolonging the conflict is higher 23:09 Bitcoin’s recent recovery stems from escape asset narratives and micro-strategy buying support 27:18 Cryptocurrency gains are driven by short-term liquidity, and long-term risks have not disappeared 33:13 Medium and long-term focus on gold, silver, copper, BTC, AI and stablecoins 35:24 Agent payment and agent trading are expected bad opportunities for the combination of AI and encryption 39:46 Copper is undervalued due to AI, power, strategic reserves and transportation disturbances 51:35 Further discussion on military industry, drones, commercial aerospace and strategic resource opportunities 59:55 Position management turns to defense, core positions are retained, and offensive positions are rotated 01:02:02 Diversify the US dollar exposure, focusing on the currencies of resource countries such as the euro and the Australian dollar #cryptocurrency #blockchain #crypto #bitcoin #gold #BTC #US-Iran conflict