Bitcoin (BTC 0.10%) was on fire early in the day on Wednesday, only to crash as the market dropped. Investors were reminded that Bitcoin doesn't run the world, the bond market does, and that was apparent today.

比特幣（BTC 0.10％）在星期三早些時候著火，直到市場下降時崩潰。提醒投資者，比特幣沒有跨越世界，債券市場確實如此，這很明顯。

The big news was a weak 20-year Treasury auction from the U.S. Treasury that resulted in a big spike in bond yields. And higher yields typically mean investors are fleeing from high-risk assets to safer assets. Crypto advocates may think Bitcoin is a “safe” asset, but history tells us that Bitcoin trades correlated with growth stocks and isn't a safe haven if there's a recession or the market drops.

最重要的消息是美國財政部的20年財政部拍賣會導致債券收益率激增。較高的收益率通常意味著投資者從高風險的資產逃到更安全的資產。加密提倡者可能認為比特幣是“安全”的資產，但歷史告訴我們，比特幣交易與增長股票相關，如果有經濟衰退或市場下降，則不是避風港。

Bitcoin's jump to $109,722 happened just before 1 p.m. ET, just before the 20-year auction took place. The value dropped to $106,307 within minutes and is now down to $107,191 as I'm writing. Ethereum (ETH 0.37%) took a similar path, falling 5% to $2,480 in a few minutes and Dogecoin (DOGE 1.07%) dropped 5.6% peak to trough and is now at $0.226 per token.

比特幣的躍升至109,722美元，就在美國東部時間下午1點之前，就在20年拍賣之前。該價值在幾分鐘內下降至106,307美元，現在我寫作的是107,191美元。以太坊（ETH 0.37％）採取了類似的道路，幾分鐘內下跌了5％至2,480美元，而Dogecoin（Doge 1.07％）下跌了5.6％的峰值，現在為0.226美元，每個令牌為0.226美元。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

The crypto reality

加密現實

As much as crypto advocates would like to think cryptocurrencies are a hedge against the market, the reality is crypto is very correlated with growth stocks.

加密倡導者想認為加密貨幣是針對市場的對沖，現實是加密貨幣與增長庫存非常相關。

You can see that in the movement of Bitcoin and the Vanguard Growth Index ETF (IVW) over the past three years.

您會看到，在過去三年中，比特幣和先鋒增長指數ETF（IVW）的運動。

Bitcoin Price data by YCharts

YCHARTS的比特幣價格數據

And the same correlation holds when the market fell in late 2021 into 2022.

當市場在2021年末到2022年市場時，相同的相關性也存在。

Bitcoin Price data by YCharts

YCHARTS的比特幣價格數據

As bond values fall (because yields are rising), it's likely investors pull back from growth stocks and risky assets like cryptocurrencies. We're seeing that in a small move today, but don't be surprised if it gets worse.

隨著債券價值的下降（因為收益率上升），投資者很可能會從增長股票和加密貨幣等風險資產中退縮。我們看到今天的舉動很小，但是如果情況變得更糟，請不要感到驚訝。

Why are bonds telling a negative story?

債券為什麼講一個負面故事？

The concern for investors is that bond markets are sending a warning. When yields jump like this it's an indication investors are seeing rising risk in Treasuries. This could be because they're not seeing the dollar as the safe haven it once was or there's higher risk of rising rates in the future because of inflation.

投資者關注的是債券市場正在發出警告。當產量跳高時，這表明投資者看到國庫的風險增加。這可能是因為他們沒有將美元視為曾經的避風港，或者由於通貨膨脹，將來利率上升的風險更高。

Those higher rates would be because the Federal Reserve has to fight inflation caused by tariffs. And with companies already starting to make decisions about holiday purchases, it's likely that higher prices will start flowing to consumers relatively soon. When that shows up in the data, it's likely too late, and the market is reacting before conditions get bad.

這些較高的利率是因為美聯儲必須與關稅造成的通貨膨脹作鬥爭。而且，隨著公司已經開始對假期購買做出決定，很快，更高的價格將開始流向消費者。當數據出現在數據中時，可能為時已晚，並且在情況惡劣之前，市場正在反應。

Higher prices are what led to the market's crash in 2022 as consumers pulled back, companies cut spending, and the economy slowed. But a recession was avoided in part because labor markets were still tight and stimulus money was still flowing. That may not be the case this time around.

隨著消費者退縮，削減支出和經濟放緩，較高的價格導致了2022年市場崩潰的原因。但是，避免衰退的部分原因是勞動力市場仍然很緊張，刺激性金錢仍在流動。這次可能不是這種情況。

Crypto's bubble is bursting

加密泡沫正在破裂

There have been a lot of tailwinds for the crypto industry from the election to rising markets, but this could be a new paradigm. If the U.S. goes into a tariff-induced recession and interest rates rise, rather than fall as you would expect in a recession, there will be massive fallout.

從選舉到不斷上升的市場，加密貨幣行業都有很多逆風，但這可能是一個新的範式。如果美國陷入關稅引起的衰退和利率上升，而不是像您在經濟衰退中所期望的那樣下降，那將會有大規模的後果。

Holding cryptocurrencies may be the last thing investors want to do in that environment and that's why there's so much volatility in a down market. Expect that to continue if bond yields rise and stocks fall in 2025.

持有加密貨幣可能是投資者在那種環境中要做的最後一件事，這就是為什麼在下跌市場中如此多波動性的原因。預計如果債券收益率上升，股票在2025年下跌，將繼續下去。