Recently, there has been a significant portion of Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) supply, 15%, that remained untouched for 6–12 months, indicating strong conviction from long-term holders.

最近，有很大一部分Dogecoin（Crypto：Doge）供應量為15％，在6-12個月內保持不變，這表明長期持有人的堅定信念。

According to data from Glassnode, these holders, many of whom entered the market before the November and December rallies, show little to no intention of selling even as the market fluctuates.

根據GlassNode的數據，這些持有人，其中許多人在11月和12月的集會前進入市場，即使市場波動，也幾乎沒有意圖出售。

This long-term holding behavior suggests confidence in Dogecoin’s future and a reluctance to part with assets during turbulent market conditions.

這種長期的持有行為表明對Dogecoin的未來有信心，並且不願在動蕩的市場條件下對資產的一部分。

15% of $DOGE's supply was last moved 6–12 months ago.

$ Doge的供應量的15％是在6-12個月前移動的。

These are holders who bought before the Nov/Dec rally – and they’re still holding.

這些持有人在諾維爾（Nov/Dec）集會前購買了 - 他們仍在舉行。

Strong signal of conviction.

堅定的信念。

According to Glassnode, the 15% of Dogecoin that hasn't been moved for the past 6–12 months is particularly noteworthy.

根據GlassNode的說法，過去6-12個月尚未移動的Dogecoin尤其值得注意。

This group represents holders who purchased their Dogecoin prior to the major price rally in late 2024. The lack of movement during this period indicates strong belief in the asset's future value.

該小組代表在2024年底在主要價格集會之前購買狗狗幣的持有人。在此期間，缺乏移動表明對資產的未來價值的信念強烈。

Many of these holders entered the market at a good point, considering the rally in November and December saw significant price increases. Despite the price fluctuations that followed, their commitment to holding their positions remains.

考慮到11月和12月的集會的價格大幅上漲，許多持有人在一個很好的時刻進入了市場。儘管價格波動波動，但他們對保持職位的承諾仍然存在。

This behavior from long-term holders speaks to a deep level of conviction and suggests that they see value in holding Dogecoin for the long haul, potentially in anticipation of future price gains.

長期持有人的這種行為表達了深刻的信念，並暗示他們認為長期以來一直將狗狗幣的價值帶到了長期以來，這可能會預期未來的價格上漲。

According to the chart from Material Indicators, the 3–6 month HODL wave for Dogecoin has been swelling since early March 2025.

根據物料指標的圖表，自2025年3月初以來，Dogecoin的3-6個月HODL波一直腫脹。

This indicates that many holders bought into the asset during the January bounce. This bounce saw Dogecoin's price rise from $0.32 to $0.41.

這表明許多持有人在1月反彈期間購買了資產。這種反彈的價格使Dogecoin的價格從0.32美元上漲至0.41美元。

As the price of Dogecoin continues to trade above these levels, some holders may choose to exit at break-even levels, especially if the price pulls back to previous highs. This could create resistance for the asset as sellers may look to liquidate their positions to recover the capital they invested.

隨著Dogecoin的價格繼續超過這些水平，一些持有人可能會選擇以收支平衡的水平退出，尤其是如果價格退回到以前的高點時。這可能會對資產產生抵抗，因為賣方可能希望清算其頭寸以收回投資的資本。

The swelling of the 3–6 month HODL wave reflects a growing pool of holders who purchased during this recent period of market optimism. Should the price approach the $0.40 mark again, there could be increased selling pressure as these holders look to realize gains or minimize losses.

3-6個月的HODL浪潮的腫脹反映了越來越多的持有人庫，這些持有人在最近的市場樂觀時期購買了。如果價格再次獲得$ 0.40的成績，則可能會增加銷售壓力，因為這些持有人希望實現收益或最小化損失。

Consequently, the market may face resistance, which could hinder Dogecoin's upward momentum in the short term.

因此，市場可能會面臨阻力，這可能會阻礙Dogecoin在短期內的上升勢頭。

Another important factor to consider is the current state of futures open interest (OI).

要考慮的另一個重要因素是當前未來的開放興趣（OI）。

At around $1 billion, Dogecoin's futures open interest has declined significantly from the November and December 2024 average of $3 billion. This decline indicates that speculation and leveraged positions are not driving the current price movements.

Dogecoin的期貨開放興趣約為10億美元，其平均值顯著下降了30億美元。這種下降表明，投機和槓杆位置並沒有推動當前的價格變動。

Instead, the rally seems to be more spot-driven, with buyers accumulating Dogecoin in the spot market rather than relying on futures contracts.

取而代之的是，集會似乎更為有點驅動，買家在現貨市場中積累了狗狗幣，而不是依靠期貨合約。

Alongside the declining futures open interest, futures volume for Dogecoin has also seen a notable decrease. The 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of futures volume has risen slightly from the bottom, but it still remains near the levels seen in October 2024.

除了下降的期貨開放興趣外，Dogecoin的期貨量也顯著下降。期貨量的7天簡單移動平均值（SMA）從底部略有上升，但仍保持在2024年10月的水平。

This suggests that, while there has been some renewed interest in Dogecoin futures, overall trading activity in this market remains relatively subdued compared to previous high points.

這表明，儘管對Dogecoin期貨產生了一些新的興趣，但與以前的高點相比，該市場的總體交易活動仍然相對柔和。