Despite struggling to break through the $0.20 resistance, Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) has shown impressive resilience lately with a 10.25% weekly rally, outpacing some high-cap rivals.

儘管努力打破了0.20美元的抵抗力，但Dogecoin（加密：Doge）最近表現出了令人印象深刻的韌性，每週一次的集會10.25％，超過了一些高額競爭對手。

However, this rally has also been met with challenges, as evidenced by the cryptocurrency’s NVT ratio reaching a three-month high.

但是，這次集會也遇到了挑戰，這是加密貨幣的NVT比率達到三個月的高度。

This suggests that the market cap is still rising faster than on-chain transactions are increasing, which could indicate weak fundamental support for the cryptocurrency at current price levels.

這表明，市值的上升速度仍比鏈上交易的速度更快，這可能表明對當前價格水平下加密貨幣的基本支持較弱。

At the moment, Dogecoin is valued at a massive $26 billion market cap, placing it among the top 10 crypto assets.

目前，Dogecoin的市值為260億美元，將其置於前10名加密貨幣資產之列。

This valuation is realized despite limited use cases for the cryptocurrency, which is largely attributed to its enormous 150 billion token supply.

儘管加密貨幣用例有限，但仍實現了這一估值，這主要歸因於其1500億個令牌供應。

Dogecoin Network Activity Remains Low

Dogecoin網絡活動仍然很低

A glance at relevant on-chain metrics reveals that network activity remains below pre-election levels. During November’s breakout when DOGE soared above $0.40, new addresses used on the cryptocurrency’s blockchain exceeded 100,000.

一眼相關的鏈界指標表明，網絡活動仍低於選舉前的水平。在11月的突破中，當Doge飆升到0.40美元以上時，加密貨幣區塊鏈上使用的新地址超過100,000。

Today, that number stands at just 12,629, highlighting a significant decrease in retail trader interest in the popular meme coin.

如今，這個數字僅為12,629，強調了零售交易者對流行的Meme Coin的興趣大幅下降。

Chart: Glassnode

圖表：玻璃節

Dogecoin ETF Prospects Fuel Speculation

Dogecoin ETF前景燃料猜測

The potential approval of a Dogecoin ETF by the Securities and Exchange Commission has emerged as a major factor that could influence the cryptocurrency’s price trends.

美國證券交易委員會（Securities and Exchange Commission）的Dogecoin ETF的潛在批准已成為可能影響加密貨幣價格趨勢的主要因素。

According to Polymarket data, there’s a 57% chance that the SEC will approve at least one DOGE ETF this year.

根據Polymarket數據，SEC今年至少有一個Doge ETF的機會有57％。

Analysts suggest such approval could propel DOGE prices to $0.4336, the highest level attained on January 18, marking a 145% surge from current levels.

分析師認為，這種批准可以將Doge價格推向0.4336美元，這是1月18日達到的最高水平，標誌著目前水平的增長145％。

The case for approval appears promising considering that Dogecoin operates on a proof-of-work network like Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and is not classified as a security.

考慮到Dogecoin在像比特幣（Crypto：BTC）這樣的工作證明網絡上運行並且未被歸類為安全性，因此批准的案例似乎很有希望。

However, market observers identify a critical risk: Dogecoin ETFs may not attract significant investor interest. While Bitcoin ETFs have amassed over $38 billion, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) funds have received less than $2.5 billion, highlighting a lack of enthusiasm for altcoin ETFs.

但是，市場觀察者確定了一個關鍵風險：Dogecoin ETF可能不會引起重大的投資者興趣。儘管比特幣ETF已積累了超過380億美元，但以太坊（Crypto：ETH）資金的資金收到了不到25億美元，這表明對Altcoin ETF缺乏熱情。

Dogecoin Prices May See Further Gains

Dogecoin價格可能會進一步增長

Technical analysis indicates that DOGE bottomed at $0.1292 earlier this month before rebounding to $0.1925. This bounce coincided with a falling wedge pattern on daily charts, which is typically deemed a bullish reversal signal.

技術分析表明，Doge在本月初的底部為0.1292美元，然後反彈至0.1925美元。這種反彈與每日圖表上的楔形圖案相吻合，通常被認為是看漲的逆轉信號。

The $0.1925 resistance level aligns with the 50-day moving average, which has repeatedly acted as strong overhead resistance in recent months. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD indicators have moved downward, suggesting diminishing momentum in price trends.

$ 0.1925的電阻水平與50天的移動平均線保持一致，最近幾個月，這一平均線路反复表現為強大的高架阻力。相對強度指數（RSI）和MACD指標都向下移動，這表明價格趨勢的勢頭下降。

A clear breakthrough above $0.2050 would confirm a bullish outlook, setting the stage for a rally to $0.2413. Conversely, a drop below $0.1292 could trigger a collapse to $0.10.

超過$ 0.2050的明顯突破將證實看漲的前景，使舞台升至0.2413美元。相反，低於$ 0.1292的下降可能會導致崩潰至$ 0.10。

Derivatives markets are showing mixed signals. Options volume recently increased by 9.11%, with open interest hitting a monthly high of $1.87 billion. However, excessive leverage led to $3.11 million in long liquidations over 24 hours.

衍生品市場顯示出混合的信號。期權量最近增加了9.11％，開放利息每月高達18.7億美元。但是，超過24小時內長期清算的槓桿率過高。

Moreover, whale activity has decreased, as approximately 4,000 addresses holding over 10,000 DOGE have been reducing their positions since May, indicating waning confidence among larger holders.

此外，鯨魚活動減少了，因為自5月以來，大約有4,000多個持有10,000多名門的地址一直在降低其位置，表明大型持有人的信心逐漸減弱。

The price action of Bitcoin will likely continue to influence DOGE’s performance. Throughout history, altcoins have flourished during periods of strong rallies in Bitcoin. Notably, BTC has recently recovered to $95,000 from a low of $74,000.

比特幣的價格動作可能會繼續影響Doge的表現。在整個歷史上，在比特幣中強烈集會期間，山寨幣蓬勃發展。值得注意的是，BTC最近從74,000美元的低點恢復至95,000美元。

Additionally, any potential approval of a Dogecoin ETF by the Securities and Exchange Commission could be influenced by the performance of the stock market, given the correlation between cryptocurrencies and equities over time.

此外，鑑於加密貨幣和股票隨著時間的推移存在相關性，證券交易委員會的Dogecoin ETF的任何潛在批准都可能受到股票市場績效的影響。