Despite struggling to break through the $0.20 resistance, Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) has shown impressive resilience lately with a 10.25% weekly rally, outpacing some high-cap rivals.

尽管努力打破了0.20美元的抵抗力，但Dogecoin（加密：Doge）最近表现出了令人印象深刻的韧性，每周一次的集会10.25％，超过了一些高额竞争对手。

However, this rally has also been met with challenges, as evidenced by the cryptocurrency’s NVT ratio reaching a three-month high.

但是，这次集会也遇到了挑战，这是加密货币的NVT比率达到三个月的高度。

This suggests that the market cap is still rising faster than on-chain transactions are increasing, which could indicate weak fundamental support for the cryptocurrency at current price levels.

这表明，市值的上升速度仍比链上交易的速度更快，这可能表明对当前价格水平下加密货币的基本支持较弱。

At the moment, Dogecoin is valued at a massive $26 billion market cap, placing it among the top 10 crypto assets.

目前，Dogecoin的市值为260亿美元，将其置于前10名加密货币资产之列。

This valuation is realized despite limited use cases for the cryptocurrency, which is largely attributed to its enormous 150 billion token supply.

尽管加密货币用例有限，但仍实现了这一估值，这主要归因于其1500亿个令牌供应。

Dogecoin Network Activity Remains Low

Dogecoin网络活动仍然很低

A glance at relevant on-chain metrics reveals that network activity remains below pre-election levels. During November’s breakout when DOGE soared above $0.40, new addresses used on the cryptocurrency’s blockchain exceeded 100,000.

一眼相关的链界指标表明，网络活动仍低于选举前的水平。在11月的突破中，当Doge飙升到0.40美元以上时，加密货币区块链上使用的新地址超过100,000。

Today, that number stands at just 12,629, highlighting a significant decrease in retail trader interest in the popular meme coin.

如今，这个数字仅为12,629，强调了零售交易者对流行的Meme Coin的兴趣大幅下降。

Chart: Glassnode

图表：玻璃节

Dogecoin ETF Prospects Fuel Speculation

Dogecoin ETF前景燃料猜测

The potential approval of a Dogecoin ETF by the Securities and Exchange Commission has emerged as a major factor that could influence the cryptocurrency’s price trends.

美国证券交易委员会（Securities and Exchange Commission）的Dogecoin ETF的潜在批准已成为可能影响加密货币价格趋势的主要因素。

According to Polymarket data, there’s a 57% chance that the SEC will approve at least one DOGE ETF this year.

根据Polymarket数据，SEC今年至少有一个Doge ETF的机会有57％。

Analysts suggest such approval could propel DOGE prices to $0.4336, the highest level attained on January 18, marking a 145% surge from current levels.

分析师认为，这种批准可以将Doge价格推向0.4336美元，这是1月18日达到的最高水平，标志着目前水平的增长145％。

The case for approval appears promising considering that Dogecoin operates on a proof-of-work network like Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and is not classified as a security.

考虑到Dogecoin在像比特币（Crypto：BTC）这样的工作证明网络上运行并且未被归类为安全性，因此批准的案例似乎很有希望。

However, market observers identify a critical risk: Dogecoin ETFs may not attract significant investor interest. While Bitcoin ETFs have amassed over $38 billion, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) funds have received less than $2.5 billion, highlighting a lack of enthusiasm for altcoin ETFs.

但是，市场观察者确定了一个关键风险：Dogecoin ETF可能不会引起重大的投资者兴趣。尽管比特币ETF已积累了超过380亿美元，但以太坊（Crypto：ETH）资金的资金收到了不到25亿美元，这表明对Altcoin ETF缺乏热情。

Dogecoin Prices May See Further Gains

Dogecoin价格可能会进一步增长

Technical analysis indicates that DOGE bottomed at $0.1292 earlier this month before rebounding to $0.1925. This bounce coincided with a falling wedge pattern on daily charts, which is typically deemed a bullish reversal signal.

技术分析表明，Doge在本月初的底部为0.1292美元，然后反弹至0.1925美元。这种反弹与每日图表上的楔形图案相吻合，通常被认为是看涨的逆转信号。

The $0.1925 resistance level aligns with the 50-day moving average, which has repeatedly acted as strong overhead resistance in recent months. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD indicators have moved downward, suggesting diminishing momentum in price trends.

$ 0.1925的电阻水平与50天的移动平均线保持一致，最近几个月，这一平均线路反复表现为强大的高架阻力。相对强度指数（RSI）和MACD指标都向下移动，这表明价格趋势的势头下降。

A clear breakthrough above $0.2050 would confirm a bullish outlook, setting the stage for a rally to $0.2413. Conversely, a drop below $0.1292 could trigger a collapse to $0.10.

超过$ 0.2050的明显突破将证实看涨的前景，使舞台升至0.2413美元。相反，低于$ 0.1292的下降可能会导致崩溃至$ 0.10。

Derivatives markets are showing mixed signals. Options volume recently increased by 9.11%, with open interest hitting a monthly high of $1.87 billion. However, excessive leverage led to $3.11 million in long liquidations over 24 hours.

衍生品市场显示出混合的信号。期权量最近增加了9.11％，开放利息每月高达18.7亿美元。但是，超过24小时内长期清算的杠杆率过高。

Moreover, whale activity has decreased, as approximately 4,000 addresses holding over 10,000 DOGE have been reducing their positions since May, indicating waning confidence among larger holders.

此外，鲸鱼活动减少了，因为自5月以来，大约有4,000多个持有10,000多名门的地址一直在降低其位置，表明大型持有人的信心逐渐减弱。

The price action of Bitcoin will likely continue to influence DOGE’s performance. Throughout history, altcoins have flourished during periods of strong rallies in Bitcoin. Notably, BTC has recently recovered to $95,000 from a low of $74,000.

比特币的价格动作可能会继续影响Doge的表现。在整个历史上，在比特币中强烈集会期间，山寨币蓬勃发展。值得注意的是，BTC最近从74,000美元的低点恢复至95,000美元。

Additionally, any potential approval of a Dogecoin ETF by the Securities and Exchange Commission could be influenced by the performance of the stock market, given the correlation between cryptocurrencies and equities over time.

此外，鉴于加密货币和股票随着时间的推移存在相关性，证券交易委员会的Dogecoin ETF的任何潜在批准都可能受到股票市场绩效的影响。