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According to market technician Cantonese Cat (@cantonmeow) on X, a single metric could be the line that could separate another vertical rally from a gut-wrenching breakdown for Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE). That metric is the 20-month simple moving average, which is currently plotted at $0.1751 and highlighted in yellow on the log chart below.

According to the technical analysis, the 20-month SMA has been a critical level for Dogecoin throughout its history, and it has often been tested during periods of consolidation or trend reversal. The price action at this moving average has been a good indicator of the overall market sentiment and the potential for a breakout or breakdown.

Cantonese Cat highlighted that there has never been a lower low on the 20-month SMA, which suggests that the buyers have been stepping in at this critical level to prevent the price from falling further. This observation supports the notion that this moving average serves as a strong support, especially in the long term.

The last three encounters with the 20-month SMA have seen the price bouncing higher and continuing its previous trend. For instance, after tapping the average in March 2017, the price of Dogecoin proceeded to rally more than 9,000% by January 2018, reaching a peak of $0.73. Similarly, the second encounter with the average in the winter of 2020 saw the price testing it at roughly one-fourth of one cent before embarking on a parabolic 34,500% run to $0.73 the following May.

The third and current iteration began in August last year when DOGE engaged with the 20-month SMA at $0.32 and proceeded to rally by more than 480%.

As of today, two successive monthly candles dipped into the zone just below twenty-cents but were both bought aggressively, leaving higher wicks and preserving the upward slope of the average. Cantonese Cat argues that as long as that moving average remains intact, “we’re going higher.” A decisive monthly close beneath $0.175 would, by this read, place the entire structure at risk and could usher in the sort of multi-month down-trend that followed the 2018 and 2021 climaxes.

TOTAL2 Needs To Break Out

Analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) overlays that micro view on a much broader canvas. His chart tracks the total crypto market capitalization ex-Bitcoin (TradingView ticker "TOTAL2") in monthly candles since 2017. Two bold yellow trend-lines define a seven-year rising channel whose upper rail repelled price at the January 2018 and November 2021 alt-season tops. Since the June 2022 low, the market has carved out an ascending triangle: a rising series of higher lows presses against a flat-topped supply zone between roughly $1.43 trillion and $1.7 trillion.

The apex of the triangle now looms; aggregate alt-cap is already worth about $1.2 trillion — all that stands between the current print and a confirmed breakout is a monthly close above the upper edge of that yellow rectangle. Kevin's projection measures the height of the pattern and adds it to the breakout level, dropping a vertical marker that intersects the mid-channel near $5.89 trillion.

Kevin's first Fibonacci extensions target is the 1.618 at $4.06 trillion. Higher extensions at 1.886, 2.0 and 2.618 cluster around $4.57 trillion, 5.89 trillion and $6.9 trillion respectively, the last of which coincides almost exactly with the channel's ceiling and is circled as the analyst's ultimate upside objective.

Why does that matter for Dogecoin? The meme-coin's two explosive cycles began only after TOTAL2 had broken its own prior-cycle high and money poured into non-Bitcoin assets. Kevin states that "altcoins are just scratching the surface of what is possible in the coming months," provided that macro-liquidity and regulatory factors permit capital rotation out of Bitcoin into the wider market.

In that scenario the 20-month SMA on DOGE would likely continue to slope higher, setting the stage for an explosive move higher. Conversely, failure of the alt-cap triangle would make a sustained loss of the SMA far more probable, robbing DOGE of its historical launch-pad.

For now, the indicator holds—and with it the prospect that Dogecoin could be primed for yet another bout of furious upside. But as both analysts caution, the monthly close will tell the story: above the 20-month SMA and an alt-cap breakout, or below it and back into hibernation.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.