According to market technician Cantonese Cat (@cantonmeow) on X, a single metric could be the line that could separate another vertical rally from a gut-wrenching breakdown for Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE). That metric is the 20-month simple moving average, which is currently plotted at $0.1751 and highlighted in yellow on the log chart below.

根据X上市场技术员的广东话猫（@cantonmeow）的说法，单个度量标准可能是可以将另一个垂直集会与Dogecoin（加密：Doge）的肠道损坏分开的线。该指标是20个月的简单移动平均线，目前绘制为0.1751美元，在下面的日志图中以黄色突出显示。

According to the technical analysis, the 20-month SMA has been a critical level for Dogecoin throughout its history, and it has often been tested during periods of consolidation or trend reversal. The price action at this moving average has been a good indicator of the overall market sentiment and the potential for a breakout or breakdown.

根据技术分析，20个月的SMA在整个历史上一直是狗狗蛋白的关键水平，并且在合并或趋势逆转期间经常进行了测试。在此移动平均值上的价格行动是整体市场情绪的良好指标以及突破或分解的潜力。

Cantonese Cat highlighted that there has never been a lower low on the 20-month SMA, which suggests that the buyers have been stepping in at this critical level to prevent the price from falling further. This observation supports the notion that this moving average serves as a strong support, especially in the long term.

广东话猫强调，20个月的SMA从来没有较低的低点，这表明买家一直在这一关键水平上介入，以防止价格进一步下跌。该观察结果支持这样的观念，即该移动平均线是强大的支持，尤其是从长远来看。

The last three encounters with the 20-month SMA have seen the price bouncing higher and continuing its previous trend. For instance, after tapping the average in March 2017, the price of Dogecoin proceeded to rally more than 9,000% by January 2018, reaching a peak of $0.73. Similarly, the second encounter with the average in the winter of 2020 saw the price testing it at roughly one-fourth of one cent before embarking on a parabolic 34,500% run to $0.73 the following May.

与20个月的SMA相遇的最后三场相遇使价格越来越高，并持续了以前的趋势。例如，在2017年3月的平均水平敲击平均水平之后，到2018年1月，Dogecoin的价格提高到9,000％以上，达到0.73美元。同样，第二次与2020年冬季平均水平的相遇是，价格测试的价格约为四分之一，然后开始了抛物线寄生虫34,500％，下降到五月的5月。

The third and current iteration began in August last year when DOGE engaged with the 20-month SMA at $0.32 and proceeded to rally by more than 480%.

第三次和目前的迭代始于去年8月，当时Doge与20个月的SMA订婚，售价为0.32美元，并于480％以上进行集会。

As of today, two successive monthly candles dipped into the zone just below twenty-cents but were both bought aggressively, leaving higher wicks and preserving the upward slope of the average. Cantonese Cat argues that as long as that moving average remains intact, “we’re going higher.” A decisive monthly close beneath $0.175 would, by this read, place the entire structure at risk and could usher in the sort of multi-month down-trend that followed the 2018 and 2021 climaxes.

截至今天，两条连续的每月蜡烛浸入二十美分以下的区域，但都被积极地购买，留下了更高的灯芯，并保留了平均水平的上坡。广东猫认为，只要移动平均水平保持完整，“我们要高。”通过此阅读，每月果断的每月收盘价低于$ 0.175，将使整个结构处于危险之中，并可能迎来2018年和2021年高潮之后的多个月下降趋势。

TOTAL2 Needs To Break Out

总计2需要爆发

Analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) overlays that micro view on a much broader canvas. His chart tracks the total crypto market capitalization ex-Bitcoin (TradingView ticker "TOTAL2") in monthly candles since 2017. Two bold yellow trend-lines define a seven-year rising channel whose upper rail repelled price at the January 2018 and November 2021 alt-season tops. Since the June 2022 low, the market has carved out an ascending triangle: a rising series of higher lows presses against a flat-topped supply zone between roughly $1.43 trillion and $1.7 trillion.

分析师Kevin（@kev_capital_ta）在更广泛的画布上覆盖了该图。他的图表跟踪了自2017年以来每月蜡烛的总加密货币市值前币（TradingView Tricker“ total2”）的总数。两个大胆的黄色趋势线定义了一个七年的上升频道，其上部铁路在2018年1月和2021年11月的Alt Alt Seases季节都击退了。自2022年6月以来，市场已经划定了一个上升的三角形：一系列上升的高低压力压力在大约1.43万亿美元至1.7万亿美元之间。

The apex of the triangle now looms; aggregate alt-cap is already worth about $1.2 trillion — all that stands between the current print and a confirmed breakout is a monthly close above the upper edge of that yellow rectangle. Kevin's projection measures the height of the pattern and adds it to the breakout level, dropping a vertical marker that intersects the mid-channel near $5.89 trillion.

现在三角形的顶点笼罩着；总替代帽已经价值约1.2万亿美元 - 当前印刷品和确认的突破之间的所有位置都在该黄色矩形的上边缘上方的每月接近。凯文（Kevin）的投影测量了图案的高度，并将其添加到突破级别，从而丢弃了垂直标记，该标记与中频道相交，接近5.89万亿美元。

Kevin's first Fibonacci extensions target is the 1.618 at $4.06 trillion. Higher extensions at 1.886, 2.0 and 2.618 cluster around $4.57 trillion, 5.89 trillion and $6.9 trillion respectively, the last of which coincides almost exactly with the channel's ceiling and is circled as the analyst's ultimate upside objective.

凯文的第一个斐波那契扩展目标是1.618，为4.06万亿美元。较高的扩展名分别为1.886、2.0和2.618，分别为4.57万亿美元，5.89万亿美元和6.9万亿美元，其中最后一个几乎与频道的天花板完全吻合，并且作为分析师的终极上升目标而圆圈。

Why does that matter for Dogecoin? The meme-coin's two explosive cycles began only after TOTAL2 had broken its own prior-cycle high and money poured into non-Bitcoin assets. Kevin states that "altcoins are just scratching the surface of what is possible in the coming months," provided that macro-liquidity and regulatory factors permit capital rotation out of Bitcoin into the wider market.

为什么这对Dogecoin很重要？模因的两个爆炸性循环仅在Total2打破了自己的先前周期高，并涌入非比型币资产后才开始使用。凯文（Kevin）指出，“只要宏观流动性和法规因素允许将比特币转移到更广阔的市场中，“山寨币只是刮擦了未来几个月可能的表面”。

In that scenario the 20-month SMA on DOGE would likely continue to slope higher, setting the stage for an explosive move higher. Conversely, failure of the alt-cap triangle would make a sustained loss of the SMA far more probable, robbing DOGE of its historical launch-pad.

在这种情况下，Doge上20个月的SMA可能会继续更高倾斜，为爆炸性移动奠定了基础。相反，Alt-CAP三角的失败将使SMA的持续损失更可能抢劫其历史发射台。

For now, the indicator holds—and with it the prospect that Dogecoin could be primed for yet another bout of furious upside. But as both analysts caution, the monthly close will tell the story: above the 20-month SMA and an alt-cap breakout, or below it and back into hibernation.

就目前而言，该指标的存在 - 并且有了Dogecoin可以为另一场愤怒的上升空间准备的前景。但是，正如两位分析师所警告的那样，每月的结束将讲述这个故事：在20个月的SMA和Alt-Cap突破之上，或者在其下方，然后重新回到休眠状态。

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.

发稿时，Doge的交易价格为$ 0。