According to market technician Cantonese Cat (@cantonmeow) on X, a single metric could be the line that could separate another vertical rally from a gut-wrenching breakdown for Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE). That metric is the 20-month simple moving average, which is currently plotted at $0.1751 and highlighted in yellow on the log chart below.

根據X上市場技術員的廣東話貓（@cantonmeow）的說法，單個度量標準可能是可以將另一個垂直集會與Dogecoin（加密：Doge）的腸道損壞分開的線。該指標是20個月的簡單移動平均線，目前繪製為0.1751美元，在下面的日誌圖中以黃色突出顯示。

According to the technical analysis, the 20-month SMA has been a critical level for Dogecoin throughout its history, and it has often been tested during periods of consolidation or trend reversal. The price action at this moving average has been a good indicator of the overall market sentiment and the potential for a breakout or breakdown.

根據技術分析，20個月的SMA在整個歷史上一直是狗狗蛋白的關鍵水平，並且在合併或趨勢逆轉期間經常進行了測試。在此移動平均值上的價格行動是整體市場情緒的良好指標以及突破或分解的潛力。

Cantonese Cat highlighted that there has never been a lower low on the 20-month SMA, which suggests that the buyers have been stepping in at this critical level to prevent the price from falling further. This observation supports the notion that this moving average serves as a strong support, especially in the long term.

廣東話貓強調，20個月的SMA從來沒有較低的低點，這表明買家一直在這一關鍵水平上介入，以防止價格進一步下跌。該觀察結果支持這樣的觀念，即該移動平均線是強大的支持，尤其是從長遠來看。

The last three encounters with the 20-month SMA have seen the price bouncing higher and continuing its previous trend. For instance, after tapping the average in March 2017, the price of Dogecoin proceeded to rally more than 9,000% by January 2018, reaching a peak of $0.73. Similarly, the second encounter with the average in the winter of 2020 saw the price testing it at roughly one-fourth of one cent before embarking on a parabolic 34,500% run to $0.73 the following May.

與20個月的SMA相遇的最後三場相遇使價格越來越高，並持續了以前的趨勢。例如，在2017年3月的平均水平敲擊平均水平之後，到2018年1月，Dogecoin的價格提高到9,000％以上，達到0.73美元。同樣，第二次與2020年冬季平均水平的相遇是，價格測試的價格約為四分之一，然後開始了拋物線寄生蟲34,500％，下降到五月的5月。

The third and current iteration began in August last year when DOGE engaged with the 20-month SMA at $0.32 and proceeded to rally by more than 480%.

第三次和目前的迭代始於去年8月，當時Doge與20個月的SMA訂婚，售價為0.32美元，並於480％以上進行集會。

As of today, two successive monthly candles dipped into the zone just below twenty-cents but were both bought aggressively, leaving higher wicks and preserving the upward slope of the average. Cantonese Cat argues that as long as that moving average remains intact, “we’re going higher.” A decisive monthly close beneath $0.175 would, by this read, place the entire structure at risk and could usher in the sort of multi-month down-trend that followed the 2018 and 2021 climaxes.

截至今天，兩條連續的每月蠟燭浸入二十美分以下的區域，但都被積極地購買，留下了更高的燈芯，並保留了平均水平的上坡。廣東貓認為，只要移動平均水平保持完整，“我們要高。”通過此閱讀，每月果斷的每月收盤價低於$ 0.175，將使整個結構處於危險之中，並可能迎來2018年和2021年高潮之後的多個月下降趨勢。

TOTAL2 Needs To Break Out

總計2需要爆發

Analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) overlays that micro view on a much broader canvas. His chart tracks the total crypto market capitalization ex-Bitcoin (TradingView ticker "TOTAL2") in monthly candles since 2017. Two bold yellow trend-lines define a seven-year rising channel whose upper rail repelled price at the January 2018 and November 2021 alt-season tops. Since the June 2022 low, the market has carved out an ascending triangle: a rising series of higher lows presses against a flat-topped supply zone between roughly $1.43 trillion and $1.7 trillion.

分析師Kevin（@kev_capital_ta）在更廣泛的畫布上覆蓋了該圖。他的圖表跟踪了自2017年以來每月蠟燭的總加密貨幣市值前幣（TradingView Tricker“ total2”）的總數。兩個大膽的黃色趨勢線定義了一個七年的上升頻道，其上部鐵路在2018年1月和2021年11月的Alt Alt Seases季節都擊退了。自2022年6月以來，市場已經劃定了一個上升的三角形：一系列上升的高低壓力壓力在大約1.43萬億美元至1.7萬億美元之間。

The apex of the triangle now looms; aggregate alt-cap is already worth about $1.2 trillion — all that stands between the current print and a confirmed breakout is a monthly close above the upper edge of that yellow rectangle. Kevin's projection measures the height of the pattern and adds it to the breakout level, dropping a vertical marker that intersects the mid-channel near $5.89 trillion.

現在三角形的頂點籠罩著；總替代帽已經價值約1.2萬億美元 - 當前印刷品和確認的突破之間的所有位置都在該黃色矩形的上邊緣上方的每月接近。凱文（Kevin）的投影測量了圖案的高度，並將其添加到突破級別，從而丟棄了垂直標記，該標記與中頻道相交，接近5.89萬億美元。

Kevin's first Fibonacci extensions target is the 1.618 at $4.06 trillion. Higher extensions at 1.886, 2.0 and 2.618 cluster around $4.57 trillion, 5.89 trillion and $6.9 trillion respectively, the last of which coincides almost exactly with the channel's ceiling and is circled as the analyst's ultimate upside objective.

凱文的第一個斐波那契擴展目標是1.618，為4.06萬億美元。較高的擴展名分別為1.886、2.0和2.618，分別為4.57萬億美元，5.89萬億美元和6.9萬億美元，其中最後一個幾乎與頻道的天花板完全吻合，並且作為分析師的終極上升目標而圓圈。

Why does that matter for Dogecoin? The meme-coin's two explosive cycles began only after TOTAL2 had broken its own prior-cycle high and money poured into non-Bitcoin assets. Kevin states that "altcoins are just scratching the surface of what is possible in the coming months," provided that macro-liquidity and regulatory factors permit capital rotation out of Bitcoin into the wider market.

為什麼這對Dogecoin很重要？模因的兩個爆炸性循環僅在Total2打破了自己的先前週期高，並湧入非比型幣資產後才開始使用。凱文（Kevin）指出，“只要宏觀流動性和法規因素允許將比特幣轉移到更廣闊的市場中，“山寨幣只是刮擦了未來幾個月可能的表面”。

In that scenario the 20-month SMA on DOGE would likely continue to slope higher, setting the stage for an explosive move higher. Conversely, failure of the alt-cap triangle would make a sustained loss of the SMA far more probable, robbing DOGE of its historical launch-pad.

在這種情況下，Doge上20個月的SMA可能會繼續更高傾斜，為爆炸性移動奠定了基礎。相反，Alt-CAP三角的失敗將使SMA的持續損失更可能搶劫其歷史發射台。

For now, the indicator holds—and with it the prospect that Dogecoin could be primed for yet another bout of furious upside. But as both analysts caution, the monthly close will tell the story: above the 20-month SMA and an alt-cap breakout, or below it and back into hibernation.

就目前而言，該指標的存在 - 並且有了Dogecoin可以為另一場憤怒的上升空間準備的前景。但是，正如兩位分析師所警告的那樣，每月的結束將講述這個故事：在20個月的SMA和Alt-Cap突破之上，或者在其下方，然後重新回到休眠狀態。

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.

發稿時，Doge的交易價格為$ 0。