Crypto markets are giving no return opportunities for intraday traders, but long-term market watchers say the market is in a coiled spot and key levels are to be monitored for moves on either side.

Bitcoin

According to data from Fineqia research analyst Matteo Greco, BTC ended last week week around $105,700, down 3.1% from the previous week’s close near $109,050. This came as BTC spot ETFs saw $150 million in net outflows in the the first negative print after six consecutive weeks of inflows.

“BTC reserves on exchanges continue to decline, while reserves for major altcoins such as ETH and XRP have stabilised,” Greco wrote in an email to CoinDesk.

Stablecoin reserves on exchanges have reached their highest levels in years, he added, a sign that investors may be preparing to deploy fresh capital rather than exiting the market.

Greco added that bitcoin’s market-value-to-realised-value (MVRV) ratio currently stands at around 2.2, below the historical top threshold of 3.7. That suggests we’re in the late stages of the cycle — but not at the peak yet.

According to Bitunix analysts, the Fed's dovish comments this week could provide a short-term boost to risk appetite, though they warned that dollar volatility might disrupt flows.

"Bitcoin's short-term key level is at $105,000," they said. "If it can hold above this level, it may continue to rise. Conversely, if the market shifts back to risk aversion, the key support level at $102,700 must be defended."

As such, analysts say that if Bitcoin's dominance begins to fade, historically a sign of late-cycle rotation, altcoins could gain momentum, marking the later innings of a bull market.

With stablecoin reserves rising and institutions continuing to integrate Bitcoin into their strategies, traders are bracing for what could be a volatile but potentially lucrative summer.

"We’re hoping that the positive trend for the crypto markets continues for the long run," said Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research.

"Perhaps surprisingly, given the pessimistic macroeconomic narrative that has unfolded in recent months, we've seen a shift in sentiment towards risk assets. This is likely linked to the U.S. trade war and its drag on the global economy, which may have been priced in by traders.

"While the U.S. economy shows signs of contraction, investors are optimistic on tech, especially on the future outlook of Bitcoin as institutions continue to integrate further with the industry. Despite inflation risks and uncertain macro policies, we believe the long-term trajectory of the crypto market remains positive."