Crypto markets are giving no return opportunities for intraday traders, but long-term market watchers say the market is in a coiled spot and key levels are to be monitored for moves on either side.

加密貨幣市場沒有為盤中交易者提供回報機會，但是長期的市場觀察家說，市場處於盤繞點，應監控兩邊的舉動的關鍵水平。

Bitcoin

比特幣

According to data from Fineqia research analyst Matteo Greco, BTC ended last week week around $105,700, down 3.1% from the previous week’s close near $109,050. This came as BTC spot ETFs saw $150 million in net outflows in the the first negative print after six consecutive weeks of inflows.

根據Fineqia研究分析師Matteo Greco的數據，BTC上週結束了大約105,700美元，比上週收盤價接近109,050美元下降了3.1％。這是因為在連續六個星期的流入後，BTC Spot ETF在第一個負面印刷中看到了1.5億美元的淨流出。

“BTC reserves on exchanges continue to decline, while reserves for major altcoins such as ETH and XRP have stabilised,” Greco wrote in an email to CoinDesk.

Greco在給Coindesk的一封電子郵件中寫道：“ BTC的交流儲備繼續下降，而諸如ETH和XRP之類的主要山寨幣的儲量已經穩定下來。”

Stablecoin reserves on exchanges have reached their highest levels in years, he added, a sign that investors may be preparing to deploy fresh capital rather than exiting the market.

他補充說，在交流方面的Stablecoin儲備金已經達到了多年來的最高水平，這表明投資者可能正在準備部署新的資本而不是退出市場。

Greco added that bitcoin’s market-value-to-realised-value (MVRV) ratio currently stands at around 2.2, below the historical top threshold of 3.7. That suggests we’re in the late stages of the cycle — but not at the peak yet.

Greco補充說，比特幣的市場價值與實現價值（MVRV）的比率目前約為2.2，低於歷史最高閾值3.7。這表明我們處於週期的晚期，但尚未達到頂峰。

According to Bitunix analysts, the Fed's dovish comments this week could provide a short-term boost to risk appetite, though they warned that dollar volatility might disrupt flows.

根據Bitunix分析師的說法，美聯儲本週的虔誠評論可以為風險胃口提供短期的增強，儘管他們警告說，美元波動可能會破壞流動。

"Bitcoin's short-term key level is at $105,000," they said. "If it can hold above this level, it may continue to rise. Conversely, if the market shifts back to risk aversion, the key support level at $102,700 must be defended."

他們說：“比特幣的短期關鍵水平為105,000美元。” “如果它可以超過此水平，它可能會繼續上升。相反，如果市場轉移到風險厭惡，則必須為102,700美元的關鍵支持水平辯護。”

As such, analysts say that if Bitcoin's dominance begins to fade, historically a sign of late-cycle rotation, altcoins could gain momentum, marking the later innings of a bull market.

因此，分析人士說，如果比特幣的主導地位開始逐漸消失，從歷史上看，這是循環旋轉的標誌，山寨幣可能會獲得動力，這是牛市後來的局面。

With stablecoin reserves rising and institutions continuing to integrate Bitcoin into their strategies, traders are bracing for what could be a volatile but potentially lucrative summer.

隨著Stablecoin儲備的上升，機構繼續將比特幣整合到其戰略中，交易者正在為可能是一個動盪但可能有利可圖的夏季進行努力。

"We’re hoping that the positive trend for the crypto markets continues for the long run," said Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research.

LVRG Research總監Nick Ruck說：“我們希望加密貨幣市場的積極趨勢從長遠來看會繼續。”

"Perhaps surprisingly, given the pessimistic macroeconomic narrative that has unfolded in recent months, we've seen a shift in sentiment towards risk assets. This is likely linked to the U.S. trade war and its drag on the global economy, which may have been priced in by traders.

“也許令人驚訝的是，鑑於最近幾個月來的悲觀宏觀經濟敘事，我們已經看到情緒轉向風險資產。這很可能與美國貿易戰及其對全球經濟的拖累有關，這可能是由貿易商定價的。

"While the U.S. economy shows signs of contraction, investors are optimistic on tech, especially on the future outlook of Bitcoin as institutions continue to integrate further with the industry. Despite inflation risks and uncertain macro policies, we believe the long-term trajectory of the crypto market remains positive."

“儘管美國經濟表現出收縮的跡象，但投資者對技術很樂觀，尤其是隨著機構繼續與該行業進一步融合的比特幣的未來前景。儘管通貨膨脹風險和不確定的宏觀政策，我們相信加密市場的長期軌跡仍然是積極的。”