Crypto markets are giving no return opportunities for intraday traders, but long-term market watchers say the market is in a coiled spot and key levels are to be monitored for moves on either side.

加密货币市场没有为盘中交易者提供回报机会，但是长期的市场观察家说，市场处于盘绕点，应监控两边的举动的关键水平。

Bitcoin

比特币

According to data from Fineqia research analyst Matteo Greco, BTC ended last week week around $105,700, down 3.1% from the previous week’s close near $109,050. This came as BTC spot ETFs saw $150 million in net outflows in the the first negative print after six consecutive weeks of inflows.

根据Fineqia研究分析师Matteo Greco的数据，BTC上周结束了大约105,700美元，比上周收盘价接近109,050美元下降了3.1％。这是因为在连续六个星期的流入后，BTC Spot ETF在第一个负面印刷中看到了1.5亿美元的净流出。

“BTC reserves on exchanges continue to decline, while reserves for major altcoins such as ETH and XRP have stabilised,” Greco wrote in an email to CoinDesk.

Greco在给Coindesk的一封电子邮件中写道：“ BTC的交流储备继续下降，而诸如ETH和XRP之类的主要山寨币的储量已经稳定下来。”

Stablecoin reserves on exchanges have reached their highest levels in years, he added, a sign that investors may be preparing to deploy fresh capital rather than exiting the market.

他补充说，在交流方面的Stablecoin储备金已经达到了多年来的最高水平，这表明投资者可能正在准备部署新的资本而不是退出市场。

Greco added that bitcoin’s market-value-to-realised-value (MVRV) ratio currently stands at around 2.2, below the historical top threshold of 3.7. That suggests we’re in the late stages of the cycle — but not at the peak yet.

Greco补充说，比特币的市场价值与实现价值（MVRV）的比率目前约为2.2，低于历史最高阈值3.7。这表明我们处于周期的晚期，但尚未达到顶峰。

According to Bitunix analysts, the Fed's dovish comments this week could provide a short-term boost to risk appetite, though they warned that dollar volatility might disrupt flows.

根据Bitunix分析师的说法，美联储本周的虔诚评论可以为风险胃口提供短期的增强，尽管他们警告说，美元波动可能会破坏流动。

"Bitcoin's short-term key level is at $105,000," they said. "If it can hold above this level, it may continue to rise. Conversely, if the market shifts back to risk aversion, the key support level at $102,700 must be defended."

他们说：“比特币的短期关键水平为105,000美元。” “如果它可以超过此水平，它可能会继续上升。相反，如果市场转移到风险厌恶，则必须为102,700美元的关键支持水平辩护。”

As such, analysts say that if Bitcoin's dominance begins to fade, historically a sign of late-cycle rotation, altcoins could gain momentum, marking the later innings of a bull market.

因此，分析人士说，如果比特币的主导地位开始逐渐消失，从历史上看，这是循环旋转的标志，山寨币可能会获得动力，这是牛市后来的局面。

With stablecoin reserves rising and institutions continuing to integrate Bitcoin into their strategies, traders are bracing for what could be a volatile but potentially lucrative summer.

随着Stablecoin储备的上升，机构继续将比特币整合到其战略中，交易者正在为可能是一个动荡但可能有利可图的夏季进行努力。

"We’re hoping that the positive trend for the crypto markets continues for the long run," said Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research.

LVRG Research总监Nick Ruck说：“我们希望加密货币市场的积极趋势从长远来看会继续。”

"Perhaps surprisingly, given the pessimistic macroeconomic narrative that has unfolded in recent months, we've seen a shift in sentiment towards risk assets. This is likely linked to the U.S. trade war and its drag on the global economy, which may have been priced in by traders.

“也许令人惊讶的是，鉴于最近几个月来的悲观宏观经济叙事，我们已经看到情绪转向风险资产。这很可能与美国贸易战及其对全球经济的拖累有关，这可能是由贸易商定价的。

"While the U.S. economy shows signs of contraction, investors are optimistic on tech, especially on the future outlook of Bitcoin as institutions continue to integrate further with the industry. Despite inflation risks and uncertain macro policies, we believe the long-term trajectory of the crypto market remains positive."

“尽管美国经济表现出收缩的迹象，但投资者对技术很乐观，尤其是随着机构继续与该行业进一步融合的比特币的未来前景。尽管通货膨胀风险和不确定的宏观政策，我们相信加密市场的长期轨迹仍然是积极的。”