The Bitcoin Juggernaut is back! How long will it last this time? On Warsh’s first day in office, will Bitcoin’s fate rise or fall?

Original author：AI悟空说

Original source：https://www.youtube.com/embed/xzpgvyd8irU

The video provides an in-depth analysis of the multiple structural forces behind Bitcoin's market share rising to 58.5% from a macro perspective. The article pointed out that this data is not a simple internal fund rotation signal, but a natural result of the convergence of risk preferences and the concentration of funds in relatively certain assets in the context of high global macro uncertainty. The current crypto market is experiencing a "steady-state reset" from being driven by retail investor sentiment to being driven by multiple macro forces. The biggest disagreement has emerged within the Federal Reserve since 1992. Powell's resignation and Warsh's succession have brought about changes in the policy path. Market expectations for an interest rate cut in 2026 have shrunk to 16.4%. At the same time, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeded the key 5% mark, and risk-free assets returned to positive real returns. This fundamentally raised the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin and created structural valuation pressure. In terms of geopolitics, the Iran conflict has led to a surge in energy prices, coupled with the restructuring of global trade tariffs, further pushing up inflation expectations and reducing the space for monetary policy easing. However, there are positive signals at the regulatory level - the draft CLARITY Act was announced, which is expected to provide permanent securities regulatory exemptions for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Institutional funds continued to flow in through Bitcoin ETFs, with a net inflow of approximately US$2.44 billion in April. In terms of altcoins, TON, ZEC and DOGE have shown periodic strength. However, due to the high interest rate environment, oversupply of tokens and regulatory gray areas, this "altcoin season" is more likely to show internal differentiation rather than an overall rise. The article finally proposes three macro scenarios: soft landing consolidation, policy rebound mini-copycat cycle, and dual tightening shocks. Overall, Bitcoin is evolving from a speculative asset to a mature asset priced by multiple macro factors, and the 58.5% dominance rate marks a structural revaluation of the market rather than a simple bull-bear switch.