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The rise of prediction markets has given crypto participants a wide array of opportunities to test their knowledge of markets, politics, pop culture, and more.
SInce launching in late 2021, crypto-focused prediction market Myriad has become one of the most popular options for engaged users to follow or wager on a real-time, community-sourced indicator of an event’s likelihood, potentially cashing in on their knowledge in the process.
By using a prediction market like Myriad, users can follow or wager on a real-time, community-sourced indicator of an event’s likelihood, potentially cashing in on their knowledge in the process.
What’s popping on Myriad this week? Here’s a look at some of the most interesting, active, and newsworthy markets right now, including current odds and helpful context.
Dogecoin Price Above $0.19 on Saturday, May 10 at 11:59pm UTC
Market Open: May 8 Market Closes: May 10 Volume: $4.1K
A flash market on Myriad is asking predictors whether or not they think the price of Dogecoin (DOGE) will be above $0.19 around 8pm ET on Saturday. At the time of writing, predictors give it a 52% chance as crypto prices rise across the board, with Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 on Thursday for the first time since February.
DOGE, the leading meme coin, has jumped 11.6% to $0.191 during the last 24 hours, moving it above on the market line in the process. Its performance is similar to the rest of the meme coin category, which is up 13% over the same timeframe.
Will Bitcoin’s strength propel the rest of the risk market? Or is rising Bitcoin dominance, which just hit a four-year high in the last week, set to continue grinding higher as major players and U.S. states seek access to the top crypto asset?
As of Thursday morning, notable macro trader Raoul Pal thinks otherwise.
“I think BTC dominance topped today,” Pal posted on X (formerly Twitter). “If that plays out, it is the hallmark of the next phase of the Banana Zone,” he added, dropping a term created to represent a sharp, parabolic rise in prices which represents a banana on trading charts.
Could DOGE be a beneficiary if that’s the case?
The dog-themed token was most recently closed above $0.19 on April 25 and dipped as low as $0.165 earlier this week before its nearly major jump in the last 24 hours.
What’s next: With FOMC out of the way, no major macro events are scheduled before this market closes. However, President Trump’s social posts are a wild card headed into the weekend.
Who Will Be the Next Pope? And a White Smoke Market Update
Market Open: April 21Market Close: May 8 Volume: $40K
Papal markets took a wild swing early Thursday afternoon when news began circulating that white smoke was billowing from the Sistine Chapel, a sign that a two-thirds majority was reached and a new pope was selected by secret ballot.
Ballots were cast in secret for the first time on Wednesday, but black smoke was emitted at that time, alerting spectators that no decision was made. Then again in early voting on Thursday, more black smoke.
But before drawing to a close on Thursday, a decision was reached.
This also resolved Myriad’s “white smoke in first two days” market, which had fallen to 28% in favor of “yes” a mere hour before the resolution was met.
Even with white smoke, spectators and predictors were forced to wait prior to the formal announcement.
Early on Thursday morning, odds in Myriad’s “Next Pope” market were split between the two named candidates, led by Pietro Parolin around 27% and 23% for Luis Antonio Tagle, leaving around 50% for “other.”
Those odds nearly mirrored Polymarket’s market of the same kind, which had Parolin at 28% odds alongside Luis Antonio Tagle’s 23%. Tagle had fallen below 20% odds on Myriad late on Wednesday, but rebounded to 22% on Thursday morning.
Yet, after the white smoke, odds shifted dramatically early Thursday afternoon, sending Parolin up to 67% while simultaneously dropping “other” and Tagle to 17% and 15%, respectively.
But there was still one final turn. It wasn’t Parolin or Tagle that emerged from the central window
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