Dog-themed meme coins like Dogecoin (CRYPTO:DOGE) can be funny. Its gain of 7,300% during the past five years is not funny. Nor is it amusing for investors who bought the coin at the peak of its popularity and who have been deeply underwater ever since.

以狗為主題的模因硬幣（例如Dogecoin（加密：Doge））可能很有趣。在過去五年中，它的增長7,300％並不有趣。對於那些在其受歡迎程度高峰並且從那以後一直在水下深處購買硬幣的投資者來說，這也不是很有趣。

The question for investors today is simple: After all that volatility, is this meme coin still worth thinking about buying? Surprisingly, the answer to that question is "yes," but that doesn't mean it's worth actually pulling the trigger.

今天對投資者的問題很簡單：畢竟這一切都不值得考慮購買模因硬幣嗎？令人驚訝的是，這個問題的答案是“是”，但這並不意味著值得真正拉動扳機。

Why Dogecoin is worth understanding

為什麼多丁值得理解

As the first meme coin to go to the moon, Dogecoin has a special place in the crypto ecosystem as shown by its market cap of $28.5 billion.

作為第一個上月球的模因硬幣，Dogecoin在加密生態系統中佔有特殊的位置，其市值為285億美元。

With so much capital parked in the coin, it will probably still be as viable in 10 years as it is today. That doesn't mean you should be racing to buy it. But it does mean that it is reasonable to evaluate as an investment with a bit more attentiveness than the average meme coin.

隨著硬幣中的資本如此之多，它在10年內可能仍然像今天一樣可行。這並不意味著您應該競爭購買它。但這確實意味著將評估作為一種比普通模因硬幣更加專心的投資是合理的。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

First, let's take a look at its supply. Dogecoin mints a fixed 5 billion coins every year, with no cap on its total issuance; there are currently around 149.5 billion DOGE in circulation. That perpetual inflation means long-term holders depend on demand always outpacing the coin's expanding float, or the coins available for pubic trading -- a tall order for an asset that offers no staking yield or token burn mechanism. In other words, by default, holding it for the long term just results in your value getting diluted more and more over time.

首先，讓我們看一下它的供應。 Dogecoin每年固定的50億枚硬幣固定，其總發行沒有上限；目前有大約1,495億輛流通。永久通貨膨脹意味著長期持有人總是依賴需求，總是超過硬幣的擴展浮標，或可用於恥骨交易的硬幣 - 這是一項不提供任何儲存產量或刻錄刻錄機制的資產的較高序列。換句話說，默認情況下，長期持有它只是會導致您的價值隨著時間的流逝而變得越來越稀釋。

Those drawbacks mesh with the main problem with Dogecoin. It began as a joke coin and never pivoted because the original developer abandoned the project and because there was no roadmap for features to add to the coin. There is no formal foundation behind it, no clear product vision, and no moat beyond community enthusiasm, which tends to be fickle.

這些缺點與Dogecoin的主要問題相結合。它最初是一個笑話硬幣，從不樞紐，因為原始開發人員放棄了該項目，並且由於沒有路線圖可以添加到硬幣中。它背後沒有正式的基礎，沒有明確的產品願景，除了社區熱情之外，也沒有護城河，這往往是善變的。

That leads us to the last point to appreciate. Its price catalysts remain completely external and unpredictable. When Elon Musk or another celebrity says something about holding or buying Dogecoin, it might cause the price to spike. Obviously, that's not anything that a serious investor can plan around. Furthermore, during a speculative frenzy, the coin's price can reasonably be expected to rise -- but it's impossible to know when the music is going to stop, which makes it very difficult to properly time an exit from a position.

這使我們進入了最後一點。它的價格催化劑仍然完全外部和不可預測。當埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）或其他名人說拿著或購買狗狗幣時，可能會導致價格飆升。顯然，這不是一個認真的投資者可以計劃的。此外，在投機性的瘋狂期間，可以合理地期望硬幣的價格上漲 - 但不可能知道何時會停止音樂，這使得很難正確地將退出位置退出。

In short, there's no intrinsic value here beyond the Dogecoin brand. And there's not really any mechanism by which that brand value can increase or be expected to increase in the future.

簡而言之，除了Dogecoin品牌之外，這裡沒有內在價值。而且，實際上沒有任何機制可以通過這種機制提高或預計將來會增加。

Don't sleep on these takeaways

不要在這些外賣上睡覺

While buying a lottery ticket might scratch the same speculative itch as buying Dogecoin, allocating meaningful retirement capital is hard to justify. Investors looking for long-term compounding of their cryptocurrency investments are likely better served by assets with hard supply caps, active developer communities, and real-world utility, or at least some features that can be expected to change in a way that could generate some value for holders.

雖然購買彩票可能與購買Dogecoin相同的投機性瘙癢，但分配有意義的退休資本很難證明是合理的。尋求對其加密貨幣投資的長期復雜性的投資者可能會通過具有硬供應上限，活躍的開發人員社區和現實世界實用程序的資產來更好地為您提供更好的服務，或者至少可以以某種方式改變某些可能會為持有人帶來一些價值的方式。

Nonetheless, Dogecoin can still serve a purpose, primarily for investor education.

儘管如此，Dogecoin仍然可以實現目的，主要用於投資者教育。

It illustrates the reflexive relationship between sentiment and price, why unlimited supply suppresses an asset's intrinsic value, and how liquidity injections from retail traders can overpower weak fundamentals in the short run but not in the long run. Similarly, it's a good example of the kind of asset that tends to see wild run-ups during periods of widespread financial speculation, and also a good example of the ferocious hangovers such periods tend to cause when they inevitably end.

它說明了情緒與價格之間的反思性關係，為什麼無限的供應抑制了資產的內在價值，以及零售交易者的流動性在短期內如何壓倒弱基本面，但從長遠來看。同樣，這是一個很好的例子，說明在廣泛的財務投機期間往往會看到野外興起，也是一個很好的例子，即當這些時期不可避免地結束時，這些時期的兇猛宿醉往往會造成的一個很好的例子。

Appreciating each of these lessons deeply will make you a better investor in stocks as well as in cryptocurrencies. And that's why Dogecoin is still worth a look today even if it is not worth buying.

深入了解這些課程將使您成為股票和加密貨幣的更好投資者。這就是為什麼Dogecoin今天仍然值得一看的原因，即使不值得購買。