Dog-themed meme coins like Dogecoin (CRYPTO:DOGE) can be funny. Its gain of 7,300% during the past five years is not funny. Nor is it amusing for investors who bought the coin at the peak of its popularity and who have been deeply underwater ever since.

以狗为主题的模因硬币（例如Dogecoin（加密：Doge））可能很有趣。在过去五年中，它的增长7,300％并不有趣。对于那些在其受欢迎程度高峰并且从那以后一直在水下深处购买硬币的投资者来说，这也不是很有趣。

The question for investors today is simple: After all that volatility, is this meme coin still worth thinking about buying? Surprisingly, the answer to that question is "yes," but that doesn't mean it's worth actually pulling the trigger.

今天对投资者的问题很简单：毕竟这一切都不值得考虑购买模因硬币吗？令人惊讶的是，这个问题的答案是“是”，但这并不意味着值得真正拉动扳机。

Why Dogecoin is worth understanding

为什么多丁值得理解

As the first meme coin to go to the moon, Dogecoin has a special place in the crypto ecosystem as shown by its market cap of $28.5 billion.

作为第一个上月球的模因硬币，Dogecoin在加密生态系统中占有特殊的位置，其市值为285亿美元。

With so much capital parked in the coin, it will probably still be as viable in 10 years as it is today. That doesn't mean you should be racing to buy it. But it does mean that it is reasonable to evaluate as an investment with a bit more attentiveness than the average meme coin.

随着硬币中的资本如此之多，它在10年内可能仍然像今天一样可行。这并不意味着您应该竞争购买它。但这确实意味着将评估作为一种比普通模因硬币更加专心的投资是合理的。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

First, let's take a look at its supply. Dogecoin mints a fixed 5 billion coins every year, with no cap on its total issuance; there are currently around 149.5 billion DOGE in circulation. That perpetual inflation means long-term holders depend on demand always outpacing the coin's expanding float, or the coins available for pubic trading -- a tall order for an asset that offers no staking yield or token burn mechanism. In other words, by default, holding it for the long term just results in your value getting diluted more and more over time.

首先，让我们看一下它的供应。 Dogecoin每年固定的50亿枚硬币固定，其总发行没有上限；目前有大约1,495亿辆流通。永久通货膨胀意味着长期持有人总是依赖需求，总是超过硬币的扩展浮标，或可用于耻骨交易的硬币 - 这是一项不提供任何储存产量或刻录刻录机制的资产的较高序列。换句话说，默认情况下，长期持有它只是会导致您的价值随着时间的流逝而变得越来越稀释。

Those drawbacks mesh with the main problem with Dogecoin. It began as a joke coin and never pivoted because the original developer abandoned the project and because there was no roadmap for features to add to the coin. There is no formal foundation behind it, no clear product vision, and no moat beyond community enthusiasm, which tends to be fickle.

这些缺点与Dogecoin的主要问题相结合。它最初是一个笑话硬币，从不枢纽，因为原始开发人员放弃了该项目，并且由于没有路线图可以添加到硬币中。它背后没有正式的基础，没有明确的产品愿景，除了社区热情之外，也没有护城河，这往往是善变的。

That leads us to the last point to appreciate. Its price catalysts remain completely external and unpredictable. When Elon Musk or another celebrity says something about holding or buying Dogecoin, it might cause the price to spike. Obviously, that's not anything that a serious investor can plan around. Furthermore, during a speculative frenzy, the coin's price can reasonably be expected to rise -- but it's impossible to know when the music is going to stop, which makes it very difficult to properly time an exit from a position.

这使我们进入了最后一点。它的价格催化剂仍然完全外部和不可预测。当埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）或其他名人说拿着或购买狗狗币时，可能会导致价格飙升。显然，这不是一个认真的投资者可以计划的。此外，在投机性的疯狂期间，可以合理地期望硬币的价格上涨 - 但不可能知道何时会停止音乐，这使得很难正确地将退出位置退出。

In short, there's no intrinsic value here beyond the Dogecoin brand. And there's not really any mechanism by which that brand value can increase or be expected to increase in the future.

简而言之，除了Dogecoin品牌之外，这里没有内在价值。而且，实际上没有任何机制可以通过这种机制提高或预计将来会增加。

Don't sleep on these takeaways

不要在这些外卖上睡觉

While buying a lottery ticket might scratch the same speculative itch as buying Dogecoin, allocating meaningful retirement capital is hard to justify. Investors looking for long-term compounding of their cryptocurrency investments are likely better served by assets with hard supply caps, active developer communities, and real-world utility, or at least some features that can be expected to change in a way that could generate some value for holders.

虽然购买彩票可能与购买Dogecoin相同的投机性瘙痒，但分配有意义的退休资本很难证明是合理的。寻求对其加密货币投资的长期复杂性的投资者可能会通过具有硬供应上限，活跃的开发人员社区和现实世界实用程序的资产来更好地为您提供更好的服务，或者至少可以以某种方式改变某些可能会为持有人带来一些价值的方式。

Nonetheless, Dogecoin can still serve a purpose, primarily for investor education.

尽管如此，Dogecoin仍然可以实现目的，主要用于投资者教育。

It illustrates the reflexive relationship between sentiment and price, why unlimited supply suppresses an asset's intrinsic value, and how liquidity injections from retail traders can overpower weak fundamentals in the short run but not in the long run. Similarly, it's a good example of the kind of asset that tends to see wild run-ups during periods of widespread financial speculation, and also a good example of the ferocious hangovers such periods tend to cause when they inevitably end.

它说明了情绪与价格之间的反思性关系，为什么无限的供应抑制了资产的内在价值，以及零售交易者的流动性在短期内如何压倒弱基本面，但从长远来看。同样，这是一个很好的例子，说明在广泛的财务投机期间往往会看到野外兴起，也是一个很好的例子，即当这些时期不可避免地结束时，这些时期的凶猛宿醉往往会造成的一个很好的例子。

Appreciating each of these lessons deeply will make you a better investor in stocks as well as in cryptocurrencies. And that's why Dogecoin is still worth a look today even if it is not worth buying.

深入了解这些课程将使您成为股票和加密货币的更好投资者。这就是为什么Dogecoin今天仍然值得一看的原因，即使不值得购买。