Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) has dropped sharply from its recent 52-week high, and although Elon Musk's departure from the DOGE agency might be grabbing headlines, it isn't the biggest reason. The meme token has struggled to find a use case in the real world, and if consumers, businesses, and investors don't have a tangible reason to own it, then it's impossible to create sustainable value.

Dogecoin（Crypto：Doge）從最近的52周高點開始急劇下降，儘管Elon Musk離開Doge Agency可能會佔領頭條新聞，但這並不是最大的原因。模因令牌一直在努力在現實世界中找到用例，如果消費者，企業和投資者沒有明確的理由擁有它，那麼就不可能創造可持續價值。

According to Cryptwerk, just 2,096 businesses around the world accept Dogecoin as payment for goods and services. If consumers can't spend Dogecoin at their favorite stores, then they have no reason to buy it. Businesses probably won't warm up to the meme token anytime soon, because its extreme volatility would make cash-flow management a nightmare.

根據Cryptwerk的說法，全球只有2,096家企業接受Dogecoin作為商品和服務的付款。如果消費者不能在自己喜歡的商店里花狗狗幣，那麼他們就沒有理由購買。企業可能很快就不會熱身到模因令牌，因為它的極端波動將使現金流管理成為一場噩夢。

Dogecoin also has a supply issue. There are 149.5 billion tokens in circulation as of this writing, and although there is a cap on how many more can be "mined" each year, there is no end date. In other words, new tokens will enter the market until the end of time. I've never seen an investment-grade asset with an unlimited supply that rises in value over the long term.

Dogecoin也有供應問題。截至撰寫本文時，流通著​​有1495億個令牌，儘管每年還可以“開採”多少個，但沒有結束日期。換句話說，新的代幣將進入市場，直到時間結束。我從未見過擁有無限供應的投資級資產，從長遠來看，價值上升。

A timeline of Musk's Dogecoin support

馬斯克的Dogecoin支持時間表

Between 2019 and 2021, Musk regularly shared Dogecoin-related memes on social media and participated in friendly banter with other enthusiasts. Investors started to think he had a plan to create real value for the meme token, and that speculation reached a fever pitch in the lead-up to his appearance on Saturday Night Live.

在2019年至2021年之間，馬斯克在社交媒體上定期與Dogecoin相關的模因，並與其他發燒友一起參加友好的玩笑。投資者開始認為他有一個計劃為模因令牌創造真正的價值，而這種猜測在他在《週六夜現場現場》上出現時發燒了。

During the show on May 8, 2021, Musk participated in a Dogecoin-themed comedy skit, which ended with him calling the meme token a "hustle." But as the dust settled, investors began to realize that there were no plans to defraud anyone. Instead, Musk was simply highlighting the fact that he had no interest in creating value for Dogecoin.

在2021年5月8日的演出中，馬斯克參加了一個以狗狗為主題的喜劇短劇，以他稱模因象徵為“喧囂”。但是隨著塵埃落定，投資者開始意識到沒有計劃欺騙任何人。取而代之的是，馬斯克只是強調了一個事實，那就是他對為狗狗幣創造價值沒有興趣。

After the show ended, Dogecoin peaked at $0.73 per token. It plunged over the next 12 months, losing more than 90% of its value by mid-2022. It stayed largely dormant during 2023 and for most of 2024, until the U.S. presidential election.

演出結束後，Dogecoin的峰值為$ 0.73。它在接下來的12個月中跌落，到2022年中期損失了其價值的90％以上。它在2023年和2024年的大部分時間裡一直處於休眠狀態，直到美國總統大選。

Musk threw his cash and his influence behind Donald Trump, who campaigned on a series of pro-crypto policies, and Dogecoin soared (along with most cryptocurrencies) when Trump eventually won the presidency. A short time later, Trump announced plans to appoint Musk to run an external government agency tasked with reducing America's national debt by slashing spending.

馬斯克在唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）身後扔了現金和影響力，後者競選了一系列的親克賴特（Crypto）政策，當特朗普最終贏得總統職位時，多黴素（Dodecoin）飆升（與大多數加密貨幣一起）。不久之後，特朗普宣布計劃任命馬斯克經營一個外部政府機構，負責通過削減支出來減少美國的國家債務。

Musk named the agency the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE for short, which was a clear reference to his favorite cryptocurrency. But to this day, Dogecoin has played no actual role in the agency, so its post-election rally was purely speculative.

馬斯克將該機構命名為政府效率部，或簡稱為簡稱，這清楚地提到了他最喜歡的加密貨幣。但是直到今天，Dogecoin在該機構中還沒有發揮實際作用，因此其大選後集會純粹是投機性的。

Dogecoin's recent 52-week high came at $0.47, which is lower than the 2021 peak of $0.73, suggesting that investors were less willing to buy into the hype this time around. But the meme token is now trading at just $0.19, and there could still be plenty of room to fall if history is any guide.

Dogecoin最近的52周高點為0.47美元，低於2021年的峰值0.73美元，這表明這次投資者不太願意接受炒作。但是，模因令牌現在僅以0.19美元的價格進行交易，如果歷史是任何指導，仍然有足夠的空間跌落。

Dogecoin bottomed at around $0.06 in 2022, which might be the level to watch. It implies that there could be 68% downside from the current price, and with Musk now out of the White House and no improvements to the meme token's fundamentals, that might be the path of least resistance.

Dogecoin在2022年的底部底部為0.06美元，這可能是值得關注的水平。這意味著與當前價格相比可能有68％的缺點，而馬斯克現在從白宮出來，並且對模因令牌的基本面沒有改善，這可能是阻力最小的道路。

As a result, I think it might be time to abandon Dogecoin and run for the hills.

結果，我認為可能是時候放棄狗狗幣並跑到山上了。