Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) has dropped sharply from its recent 52-week high, and although Elon Musk's departure from the DOGE agency might be grabbing headlines, it isn't the biggest reason. The meme token has struggled to find a use case in the real world, and if consumers, businesses, and investors don't have a tangible reason to own it, then it's impossible to create sustainable value.

Dogecoin（Crypto：Doge）从最近的52周高点开始急剧下降，尽管Elon Musk离开Doge Agency可能会占领头条新闻，但这并不是最大的原因。模因令牌一直在努力在现实世界中找到用例，如果消费者，企业和投资者没有明确的理由拥有它，那么就不可能创造可持续价值。

According to Cryptwerk, just 2,096 businesses around the world accept Dogecoin as payment for goods and services. If consumers can't spend Dogecoin at their favorite stores, then they have no reason to buy it. Businesses probably won't warm up to the meme token anytime soon, because its extreme volatility would make cash-flow management a nightmare.

根据Cryptwerk的说法，全球只有2,096家企业接受Dogecoin作为商品和服务的付款。如果消费者不能在自己喜欢的商店里花狗狗币，那么他们就没有理由购买。企业可能很快就不会热身到模因令牌，因为它的极端波动将使现金流管理成为一场噩梦。

Dogecoin also has a supply issue. There are 149.5 billion tokens in circulation as of this writing, and although there is a cap on how many more can be "mined" each year, there is no end date. In other words, new tokens will enter the market until the end of time. I've never seen an investment-grade asset with an unlimited supply that rises in value over the long term.

Dogecoin也有供应问题。截至撰写本文时，流通着​​有1495亿个令牌，尽管每年还可以“开采”多少个，但没有结束日期。换句话说，新的代币将进入市场，直到时间结束。我从未见过拥有无限供应的投资级资产，从长远来看，价值上升。

A timeline of Musk's Dogecoin support

马斯克的Dogecoin支持时间表

Between 2019 and 2021, Musk regularly shared Dogecoin-related memes on social media and participated in friendly banter with other enthusiasts. Investors started to think he had a plan to create real value for the meme token, and that speculation reached a fever pitch in the lead-up to his appearance on Saturday Night Live.

在2019年至2021年之间，马斯克在社交媒体上定期与Dogecoin相关的模因，并与其他发烧友一起参加友好的玩笑。投资者开始认为他有一个计划为模因令牌创造真正的价值，而这种猜测在他在《周六夜现场现场》上出现时发烧了。

During the show on May 8, 2021, Musk participated in a Dogecoin-themed comedy skit, which ended with him calling the meme token a "hustle." But as the dust settled, investors began to realize that there were no plans to defraud anyone. Instead, Musk was simply highlighting the fact that he had no interest in creating value for Dogecoin.

在2021年5月8日的演出中，马斯克参加了一个以狗狗为主题的喜剧短剧，以他称模因象征为“喧嚣”。但是随着尘埃落定，投资者开始意识到没有计划欺骗任何人。取而代之的是，马斯克只是强调了一个事实，那就是他对为狗狗币创造价值没有兴趣。

After the show ended, Dogecoin peaked at $0.73 per token. It plunged over the next 12 months, losing more than 90% of its value by mid-2022. It stayed largely dormant during 2023 and for most of 2024, until the U.S. presidential election.

演出结束后，Dogecoin的峰值为$ 0.73。它在接下来的12个月中跌落，到2022年中期损失了其价值的90％以上。它在2023年和2024年的大部分时间里一直处于休眠状态，直到美国总统大选。

Musk threw his cash and his influence behind Donald Trump, who campaigned on a series of pro-crypto policies, and Dogecoin soared (along with most cryptocurrencies) when Trump eventually won the presidency. A short time later, Trump announced plans to appoint Musk to run an external government agency tasked with reducing America's national debt by slashing spending.

马斯克在唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）身后扔了现金和影响力，后者竞选了一系列的亲克赖特（Crypto）政策，当特朗普最终赢得总统职位时，多霉素（Dodecoin）飙升（与大多数加密货币一起）。不久之后，特朗普宣布计划任命马斯克经营一个外部政府机构，负责通过削减支出来减少美国的国家债务。

Musk named the agency the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE for short, which was a clear reference to his favorite cryptocurrency. But to this day, Dogecoin has played no actual role in the agency, so its post-election rally was purely speculative.

马斯克将该机构命名为政府效率部，或简称为简称，这清楚地提到了他最喜欢的加密货币。但是直到今天，Dogecoin在该机构中还没有发挥实际作用，因此其大选后集会纯粹是投机性的。

Dogecoin's recent 52-week high came at $0.47, which is lower than the 2021 peak of $0.73, suggesting that investors were less willing to buy into the hype this time around. But the meme token is now trading at just $0.19, and there could still be plenty of room to fall if history is any guide.

Dogecoin最近的52周高点为0.47美元，低于2021年的峰值0.73美元，这表明这次投资者不太愿意接受炒作。但是，模因令牌现在仅以0.19美元的价格进行交易，如果历史是任何指导，仍然有足够的空间跌落。

Dogecoin bottomed at around $0.06 in 2022, which might be the level to watch. It implies that there could be 68% downside from the current price, and with Musk now out of the White House and no improvements to the meme token's fundamentals, that might be the path of least resistance.

Dogecoin在2022年的底部底部为0.06美元，这可能是值得关注的水平。这意味着与当前价格相比可能有68％的缺点，而马斯克现在从白宫出来，并且对模因令牌的基本面没有改善，这可能是阻力最小的道路。

As a result, I think it might be time to abandon Dogecoin and run for the hills.

结果，我认为可能是时候放弃狗狗币并跑到山上了。