If you had told people at the start of 2021 that a coin called Shiba Inu (CRYPTO:SHIB) would rise more than 400% in a single year, they probably would have laughed. If you told them that a coin which began the year at $0.007 would hit highs of over $0.003 in mid-December, they might have thought you were joking.

如果您在2021年初告訴人們，一個叫做Shiba Inu的硬幣（Crypto：Shib）將在一年內上升超過400％，那麼他們可能會笑。如果您告訴他們，一年開始的硬幣在12月中旬開始時的高價超過0.003美元，他們可能會以為您在開玩笑。

Yet, both of those things happened, and in the final analysis, it is probably a good thing that most people did not believe it was possible. If they had, they might have flocked into the meme coin in such vast numbers that it would have quickly used up all of the liquidity in the cryptocurrency markets, sending the coin into a downward spiral.

然而，這兩件事都發生了，在最終分析中，大多數人認為這是不可能的，這可能是一件好事。如果有的話，他們可能已經大量湧入模因硬幣，以至於它將很快消耗出加密貨幣市場中的所有流動性，使硬幣陷入螺旋式下降。

Of course, several other coins also saw triple-digit percentage gains in 2021, and there was a broader speculative frenzy in risky assets, such as small-cap stocks, as people had an abundance of disposable income due to government stimulus measures. However, meme coins were arguably the riskiest asset class of all, and they attracted the most attention from smaller investors.

當然，其他幾枚硬幣在2021年還看到了三位數的收益，而且風險資產（例如小型股票）的投機性狂潮更廣泛，因為人們由於政府刺激措施而產生的可支配收入豐富。但是，模因硬幣可以說是所有人中最風險的資產類別，它們吸引了小型投資者的最大關注。

So, what were the conditions that led to this speculative frenzy, and might we see a similar environment in the future?

那麼，導致這種投機性瘋狂的條件是什麼，我們將來會看到類似的環境嗎？

What went up...

發生了什麼...

The environment that produced the major price spikes in both Dogecoin (CRYPTO:DOGE) and Shiba Inu can be described as a speculative frenzy.

在Dogecoin（Crypto：Doge）和Shiba Inu中產生主要價格峰值的環境可以描述為投機性瘋狂。

Now, that’s a bit of a tautology, as super-speculative and ultra-risky investments in valueless meme coins simply do not happen at large scale outside of such conditions. But what causes those extremely speculative periods that tend to pump up the riskiest of risk assets?

現在，這是一種重言式，因為對無價值的模因硬幣的超規範和超風險投資根本不會在這種情況以外的大規模發生。但是，是什麼原因導致那些傾向於提高風險資產風險的極端投機期？

In a word, liquidity, which is to say the amount of money circulating in the cryptocurrency markets and also in traditional markets. As it pertains to meme coins, liquidity has a couple of components.

總而言之，流動性是說在加密貨幣市場以及傳統市場中流通的資金數量。由於它與模因硬幣有關，因此流動性具有幾個組成部分。

The factor that most investors will be the most familiar with is simply how much money potential speculators have in their pockets and in their investment accounts on average. When people are being given money actively, like with the pandemic-era economic stimulus policies, it directly frees up more of their capital to be allocated to investments.

大多數投資者最熟悉的因素僅僅是潛在投機者在口袋里和投資賬戶中擁有多少錢。當人們積極地賺錢時，就像大流行時期的經濟刺激政策一樣，它直接釋放了更多的資本，可以分配給投資。

If they are already feeling like their standard and less-risky set of investments are sufficiently supplied with capital, it’s natural for people to look further out on the risk curve, toward smaller growth stocks and cryptocurrencies. With enough slack, some people may be willing to take outright gambles in (misguided) hopes of leveraging their disposable income into a dramatically larger amount of money.

如果他們已經覺得自己的標準和不太風險的投資已經充分提供了資本，那麼人們自然而然地望著風險曲線，朝著較小的增長庫存和加密貨幣介紹。有了足夠的懈怠，有些人可能願意徹底賭博（誤導）將其可支配收入利用為大量的錢。

The other key factor influencing liquidity is the cost of borrowing money, as determined by the Federal Reserve’s prime interest rate. That cost is largely incurred by banks and institutional investors, but it trickles down to consumer borrowing costs as well. When holders of massive sums of capital can take out cheaper loans, their appetite for risky plays increases, as the required rate of return on their investments to cover their borrowing fees and turn a profit becomes lower.

影響流動性的另一個關鍵因素是藉錢的成本，取決於美聯儲的主要利率。銀行和機構投資者在很大程度上產生了這一成本，但也降低了消費者藉貸成本。當大量資本的持有人可以利用較便宜的貸款時，他們對風險戲劇的需求就會增加，因為所需的投資回報率以支付其借貸費用並將利潤變成較低。

The big players are probably not ever going to be buying Dogecoin or Shiba Inu directly, but they will doubtlessly invest in risky growth stocks once again, pumping the prices of those assets, and thereby creating a wealth effect that makes smaller holders feel richer, and thus more confident in taking on riskier plays themselves.

大玩家可能永遠不會直接購買Dogecoin或Shiba Inu，但毫無疑問，他們會再次投資於風險的增長股票，傾斜這些資產的價格，從而產生財富效應，從而使較小的持有人變得更加富有，從而更有信心，從而更有自信地承擔風險更高的遊戲。

Both Dogecoin and Shiba Inu saw their prices explode most recently during the pandemic period, specifically in late 2021. People’s disposable incomes were supplemented by the government, and liquidity was extremely easy to come by for consumers as well as for financial institutions. In other words, the conditions were perfect for a meme stock surge.

Dogecoin和Shiba Inu都看到他們的價格最近在大流行時期，特別是在2021年底。政府補充了人們的一次性收入，對於消費者以及金融機構來說，流動性非常容易獲得。換句話說，這些條件非常適合模因庫存激增。

Take a look at this chart:

看一下此圖表：

As you can see, while it didn’t result in breaching the all-time highs, all it took to send Dogecoin sharply upward more recently was the mere anticipation of interest rates falling further.

如您所見，雖然這並沒有導致違反歷史最高的高點，但最近將Dogecoin急劇向上發送的只是預期利率進一步下降。

Now, there wasn’t another meme coin that has reached multi-billion heights in the same way as either Dogecoin or Shiba Inu, but on a long enough timescale, it is inevitable so long as there are additional periods of increasing liquidity and personal income. During that same period, these two established coins will almost certainly rise significantly.

現在，沒有其他模因硬幣以與Dogecoin或Shiba Inu相同的方式達到數十億個高度，但是在足夠長的時間範圍內，只要有更多的流動性和個人收入增加，這是不可避免的。在同一時期，這兩個已建立的硬幣幾乎肯定會顯著上升。

Resist the urge to gamble

抵制賭博的衝動

After they peak, both of these coins will crash sharply, and there is no reason to believe that they will recover and become good investments for those who purchased them at the top, although it is technically possible.

在達到頂峰之後，這兩枚硬幣都會急劇崩潰，沒有理由相信它們會恢復並成為那些以技術上購買的人的良好投資，儘管這在技術上是可能的。

Given that these gambles or others like them tend to flourish in times when you’re likely to have a little bit more cash on hand, a far smarter move is to keep an eye on liquidity conditions and be mindful of what your own inclinations are likely to be. Resist the urge to take gambles when you have more money than usual, especially if your portfolio is already doing well. The better option here is to shore up your safer plays rather than to throw your money away.

鑑於這些賭博或其他類似的賭博往往會在您可能擁有更多現金的時候蓬勃發展，因此，更聰明的舉動是關注流動性條件，並註意自己的傾向可能是什麼。當您比平時多的錢時，請抵制去賭博的衝動，尤其是如果您的投資組合已經做得很好。這裡更好的選擇是提高您的更安全的戲劇，而不是扔掉您的錢。